Up To Date Report on Covid-19 Numbers: May 9, 2020

We have 2 weeks and 2 days and we will, as Mike Pence said, “largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us.” It gives an example of how little the White House knows what is happening with respect to Covid-19.

As I pointed out, I believe Trump had now gone the herd immunity approach urging every state to open up the economy as fast as they can. Since then we’ve seen that the CDC directive on how to approach the opening  deep sixed by the White House.

The last great pandemic we had was in 1918 but that seemed to have gone away sometime in 1919. I’d doing a little research into it to see how was it that happened.

They are working for a vaccine by the end of the year. Then there is this: “There are some viruses that we still do not have vaccines against. We can’t make an absolute assumption that a vaccine will appear at all, or if it does appear, whether it will pass all the tests of efficacy and safety.” My best guess is that they will, as is shown in this report out of Hong Kong,  come up with some drug or combination of drugs like in the case of HIV that will lessen the killing power of Covid-19.

As I try to do on Saturday I take a look at what is happening to get a realistic look at the numbers. I turn to the statistics over the last week to get an idea on how we are doing. I’m looking at the dates from May 2 to May 8.

The previous two weeks are in parenthesis:

UNITED STATES:  

Total Positive cases 1,284,708 (1,103,115 / 890,524)

Average of daily new positive cases 21,738  (30,370 / 27,260)

Total Deaths: 77,178 (64,804 / 51,017)

Death daily average: 1,768 (1,970 / 2,041)

This is clearly a good sign that things are starting to go down. Let hope it continues.

ITALY 

Positive cases: 217,185 (207,427 / 192,992)

Average of daily new positive cases: 1,394 (2,062 / 2,937)

Total Deaths 30201 (28,236 / 25,969)

Death daily average: 281 ( 324 /  461)

Italy continues to decline but we’ll see what happens as it opens up.

SPAIN 

Positive cases: 222,857 (217,185 / 207,427)

Average of daily new positive cases: 1,346 (1,394 /2,062)

Total Deaths: 26,299 (24,543 22,524)

Death daily average: 251 (281 / 324)

Spain continues to decline but we’ll see what happens as it opens up.

UK 

Positive cases: 212,629  (178,685 / 144,635)

Average of daily new positive cases: 4,849 (4,864 / 4,191)

Total Deaths: 31,315 (27,583 / 19,566)

Death daily average: 533 (1,176, 708)

Deaths are declining, but new cases remain at a level. 

Germany

When Germany opened its economy it had 159,700 positive cases: In four days it went to 164,000. It is now at 170,588 new cases or an increase of around 900 a day. It’s death toll is 7,510 which is relatively speaking low. It may give us a view into the future.

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I’m following the death rates in 39 states. We’ll see how they move up and down over the weeks.  I’ve changed the format to coincide with how I have set up my statistics in Excel. I think it will be easier to follow the individual states without too much comment.  As I learned over the week the death reports are not too accurate because states have different procedure in reporting them. But it is how I started so I’ll continue like I’ve been going.

These are the average for the last seven days. Figures in parenthesis are what were reported over prior weeks. I looked at each state to see if it had increased, decreased or stayed even  (if difference was 1 or less) in the amounts of deaths.  Results: 10 states increased, 17 stayed even, and 12 states saw a decrease.

From these figures we are pretty much not changing too much. As we open up more we’ll be able to better see the effects.

 

California             73          (73 / 82)                               =

Colorado               26          (57 / 25)                                               –

Connecticut         76          (82 / 104)                                             –

Florida                   61          (40 / 51)               +

Georgia                 32          (37 / 34)                                               –

Illinois                   112         (94 / 94)               +

Louisiana              43          (47 / 47)                                               –

Massachusetts 141         (155 / 159)                                          –

Michigan               75          (111 / 122)                                          –

New Jersey         202         (274 / 253                                            –

New York             348         (349 / 477)                          =

Pennsylvania      180         (123 / 105)          +

Washington         11          (14 / 18)                                               –

 

Alabama              14          (12 / 9)                 +

Arkansas               3             (4 / 1)                                    =

Indiana                  39          (62 / 22)                                               –

Iowa                       10          (9 / 11)                                  =

Nebraska               3           (3 / 3)                                    =

New Hampshire  6            (3 /2)                     +

Ohio,                      43          (44 / 38)                               =

Tennessee            5           (5  / 4)                                   =

Texas                     27           (32 / 23)                                               –

Vermont               1             (1 / 1)                                    =

Virginia                 33           (24 / 25)               +

Wisconsin             7             (10  / 8)                                                –

 

 

Arizona                  27          (9 / 14)                  +

Kentucky               8           (7 / 8)                                    =

Maryland              53          (52 / 53)                               =

Mississippi           18          (10 / 10)               +

Missouri                16          (10 / 13)               +

Nevada                   7           (7 / 8)                                    =

New Mexico         7           (6 /4)                                     =

North Carolina    18         (18 / 16)                               =

North Dakota       1           (2 / 1)                                    =

Oklahoma              5           (6 /7)                                     =

Rhode Island       17          (11 / 12)               +

South Carolina     9           (15 / 6)                                                 –

South Dakota       1           (2 / 1).                                  =

West Virginia       1           (2 /2);                                  =

11 thoughts on “Up To Date Report on Covid-19 Numbers: May 9, 2020

  1. wa-llahi! Bill, I concur. Imbeciles, or, cretins, would be far more descriptive, than deplorables. The first law of creative writing is “show, don’t tell.” The adjective “deplorable” when used as a noun, doesn’t summon up a strong enough image, while, imbecile, or, cretin, immediately brings to mind a specific mental picture that easily lends itself to comic metaphor. Brevity is the soul of wit.

  2. Wa-llahi! The glaring incompetence of Glorious Leader is the best thing to happen for Socialism in ages. His public blunders bring into perfect clarity the contradictions in bourgeois society. There’s no nuance to Trump. He unabashedly trumpets a creed of greed and hypocrisy. Lenin would think him the ideal lever to bring down a bourgeois government. One careless error, after, another, until, the state crumbles. Trump’s the perfect foil.

  3. It seems to me that what is missing in the data dumps is the number of Covid-19 positive, asymptomatic cases there are. Transparency in the reporting of these numbers is critical. Over 90% of inmates (not known for their good health) tested Covid-19 positive, asymptomatic in a Missouri prison. Homeless populations that have been tested in Boston have significant numbers of asymptomatic positive cases. It could be that community immunity (Matt refers to it as herd immunity) is well under way. We don’t know because the numbers are selectively reported. If 90% of those tested are showing no symptoms then a total lock down is overkill. Accurate reporting would result in better management of resources which seem endless at this point in time. Hopefully, someone in the Baker Administration realizes they are not.

  4. I did not hear Matt suggest that any one was deplorable. I only heard him suggest that perhaps Trump should heed the advice of the CDC—-a CDC that he seemed to support a couple of blinks ago–and you seemed to agree with especially about the masks. Now you are singing the praises of a man that did not have the common decency to respect patients suffering already from the ravages of disease, to cowtow to a political agenda.

    Screw the head of the hospital too. I’ll show him who makes the rules. Somebody gets sick–tough shit. Keep sticking up this dirt bag. You should be very proud of this fearless icon of courage. As long as someone else pays the price, I do not care. Would it have hurt his ego to recognize the standard procedures and show the patients that he might have some empathy for their plight?

    1. I respectfully suggest that whatever sources you are reading to compose the above statements, those sources are lying to you.
      Trump has always followed the advice of his top HHS, USPHS, NIH and CDC officials.
      You go on a tirade suggesting he has endangered folks and defied CDC scientists.
      That is simply hogwash.
      Trump and others do not wear masks, but consistently try to maintain six feet distances. See Press Conferences. Occassionally they come closer, but only briefly, in passing.
      Pence did apologize for not wearing the mask at Children’s Hospital, but said THE REASON he did not is that he was tested that day or the day before as I understand it, and he was tested NEGATIVE.

      NOW, JUST WHAT ACTION HAS THE MSM BEEN LYING TO YOU ABOUT?

      TRUMP HAS ADVOCATED REOPENING AMERICA’S ECONOMY, AND HAS ALWAYS SAID REPEATEDLY SAFETY OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE IS HIS NUMBER ONE CONCERN.

      NOW, IT’S HARD TO SEE THROUGH YOUR CONCERN BECAUSE YOU HAVE FILLED YOUR COMMENT WITH INVECTIVES AND NAME-CALLING THAT ARE NOT ILLUMIINATING AND NOT INFORMATIVE.

      TRUMP IS A GREAT PRESIDENT, AN HONEST PRESIDENT, WHOSE EARLY ACTION IN JANUARY SAVED IT IS ESTIMATED HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS AMERICAN LIVES.

      I DID NOT SAY MATT SUGGESTED TRUMP SUPPORTERS WERE DEPLORABLES, HILLARY CLINTON DID, AND HER ACOLYTES REPEATEDLY BESMIRCHED TRUMP SUPPORTERS WITH DEROGATORY TERMS . . . .THEY WERE WALLMART SHOPPERS . . . .OBAMA CALLED THEM THE TYPES OF FOLKS WHO CLING TO BIBLES AND GUNS (disparaging FREEDOM OF RELIGION AND SECOND AMENDMENT.)

      I did say correctly that Matt for three and one half years has compared Trump to Hitler, Stalin, and accused him of colluding with Russia, et cetera.

      So, the bottom line is WHAT’S THE BEEF? WHAT EXACTLY ARE YOU ACCUSING TRUMP OR HIS ADMINISTRATION OF DOING THAT IS ENDANGERING AMERICANS.

      AND BEFORE YOU ANSWER CONSIDER THE REAL HARM TO PHYSICAL HEALTH AND MENTAL HEALTH BY CONTINUING THIS LOCKDOWN: increase rates of suicides, (the australia study) increased rates of alcoholism, drug addiction, drug abuse, domestic violence, postponement of needed routine medical exams, etcetera, as many experts say joblessness causes mental and physical disease, increases stress, impairs the immune system, and so too does ISOLATION.

      THE LOCKDOWN MUST END; THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ENSURING IT ENDS GRADUALLY AND SAFELY.

      1. Well, the latest is firing an organization that has been working to understand pandemics. I guess he disagreed with Trump’s analysis of the source of the epidemic (natural or man made). It seems that since he had to go to China, he is tainted. Pompeo’s analysis was also brilliant. He supported the idea that it was made in the lab and then had no problem with the National Security Committee that the virus is unequivocally natural. If you see the interviews, pay particular attention to the researcher from NYU as she explains how it is impossible to be manmade. She speaks your language.

        It is just another instance of Trump’s willingness to discount facts that do not agree with his agenda and you so willingly promote—no matter how much damage is done in the search to find our way out of this quandary.

  5. And to my critics, I say again, IF YOU DO NOT THINK THE NEARLY THREE YEARS OF RUSSIAN COLLUSION WAS NOT AKIN TO GOEBELLS TELLING THE BIG LIE, OR THAT HILLARY’S DESCRIPTION OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS AS DEPLORABLES, WAS NOT EQUIVALENT TO THE BIG LIE, (akin to the THE ORWELLIAN TREATING ALL PEOPLE EQUAL, EXCEPT SOME PEOPLE are more equal than others, like liberals who think they are morally superior to conservative and moderates, like Hillary’s.hillarians Helions who engage in libel and smear, like many liberal democrats, the leftist MSM, activist jurists, persecutorial prosecutors like the JIHADI JAVERT FRED WYSHAK AND HIS CORRUPT COHORTS ON THE BENCH AND IN THE FEDERAL PROSECUTORS OFFICE IN BOSTON who persecuted innocent FBI agents, innocent Probation Officers, innocent Motel Owners, innocent State Senators and State Reps, innocent City Councilors) then you have not been paying attention to recent history, or you have turned a deaf ear to the blaring facts.

    LIberals continue to compare Trump supporters to the KKK, White Supremacists, NAZIs, and imply Tea Party folk and other conservatives-moderates were un-American.

    It is the liberals who cannot tolerate opposing views, and rather than debate views, it is the liberals today who engage in smear tactics, character assassination, mud slinging and ad hominem attacks.

    Those are my ideas and convictions and I am sticking with them until Hell freezes over, over and out!

  6. Finally, bear in mind, the deaths per week in the states contiguous to New York far exceed the deaths in most of the country. So why not open up the rest of the country, and keep states with high percapita deaths NY, NJ, Conn, MA, and perhaps Michigan, on a slower reopening schedule.

    Finally, really finally, outdoor air, sunshine etcetera outdoor exercise, swimming, rowing are GOOD FOR PEOPLE OF ALL AGES. VITAMIN D, STRONGER IMMUNE SYSTEM, ETC.

  7. It’s good to see all this data.

    Bear in mind, in looking at weekly deaths in the U.S., that the last two years or so there have been 70,000 drug overdoses per year, which is 1, 346 per year, divided by 50 states, which is equal to 27 deaths per week, not for two or three months as with Covid, but for 52 weeks.

    The question I have for the microphobic is WHEN WOULD YOU BEGIN TO OPEN THE ECONOMY?

    Australian scientists recently published a report estimating there would be more deaths from suicide over the next five years, directly attributable to THE LOCKDOWN, versus deaths from Coronovirus. And that is not adding in potential increased deaths due to alcoholism, drug addiction, delay in cancer treatment, parents avoiding getting routine vaccines and routine pediatric visits, delay in routine diagnostic testing for breast cancer, colon cancer etc, delays in so called elective surgeries, like heart valve replacements, artery by pass operations, and a myriad other adverse effects from the LockDown itself, physical and mental health affects from isolation, joblessness, etc,

    SO WHEN WOULD YOU RECOMMEND WE REOPEN THE ECONOMY AND BASED ON WHAT METRICS? tHAT THERE BE NO COVID DEATHS. only ONE THOUSAND COVID DEATHS A WEEK? tHAT WOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THE DRUG OVERDOSE OR AUTOMOBILE DEATHS, 70,000 AND 35000 DEATHS ANNUALLY.

    1. Shame on you comparing auto deaths and drug related deaths in the same sense as covid 19,

      1. Shame on you pal, for your lack of understanding. Comparisons help put things in perspective. Do you close your eyes to causes of death that are greater than Covid . . .or do you ever wonder why we don’t do more as a society to prevent seventy thousand drug overdose deaths a year and the far worse social disruption caused by the drug abuse epidemic in America.
        And what exactly does the word shame mean . . .is that a word you use to silence those with opposing views . . .an economist from Columbia recently said shame on the Trump Adminstration, have you know shame, he wrote in a CNN editorial, invoking Joe McCarthy, and when I read his article I found it so deficient in reasoning and so full of salient omissions of fact, that I realized the person who was pointing the finger of shame at others, was in the fact the person who should have been ashamed of themselves.

        By the way pal, the best scientific minds in America, at Medical Schools, Schools of Public Health, Institutions that study infectious diseases, causes of deaths, preventive medicine, ALL COMPARE COVID TO OTHER VIRUSES AND OTHER CAUSES OF DEATH IN AMERICA AND THE WORLD.

        NEXT TIME, TRY TO CONTRIBUTE SOMETHING INSTEAD OF NAME CALLING . . .A TACTIC CONSTANTLY EMPLOYED BY LEFTISTS GENERALLY AND TODAY’S ILL LIBERAL MSM

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