A Mixed Bag On Deaths from Coronavirus: Saturday Report

Over the last twenty-four hours we’ve seen in the original group of nine states that I was following there were 95 deaths in California the second highest number ever – on 4/12 it had 110 deaths. The prior seven days average was 59; there were 63 deaths in Georgia, its highest number to date. The prior seven days averaged 30. There were 159 deaths in Massachusetts, also its highest number to date with an average of 106 over prior seven days.

New Jersey had 322 deaths which is lower that the three preceding days of 362, 351, 362, but the prior seven days averaged to 260. New York with 630 deaths is lower than the average of the prior seven days of 732. Florida at 23 had a lower figure than the seven-day average of 42; Louisiana had 57 and the seven days prior average was 65;  Texas had 35 above the seven-day average of 28; and finally Washington had 16 below the average of 21 deaths.

There were six states where the deaths exceeded the average of the prior seven days. The United States average for the seven days prior was 2,321. Its death rate in the past 24 hours was 3,816, over 50% higher than the average. It is hard to say we are at the peak.

I added after a few days nine more states to follow: Alabama had 11 deaths – its daily average over the seven days prior to that is 8.4; Arkansas had 0 deaths – its daily average over the seven days prior to that is 2.3;  Colorado had 17 deaths – daily 7 day average prior 23.5; Connecticut had 65  while daily average of deaths over prior 7 days 85; Illinois had 62, 7 day daily average 78; Indiana had 42 deaths; the seven-day daily average prior to that is: 33; Michigan had 134 deaths; seven-day prior average to that is 145; Ohio had 29 deaths, 7 day prior average 25; Pennsylvania had 49 deaths – the 7 day prior average is 52; and Wisconsin had 8 deaths with 7 day prior average of 12.

That is another mixed bag. Although seven of the ten came in under average which is a good sign.

I started on another 20 states to get a better feel for the happenings. There are a group of states that had no increase in deaths or six or less. They are: Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee and Vermont.  

Others had between 7 and 15 deaths: Arizona, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Iowa, Kentucky, Oklahoma, 

I am unable to do a seven-day average on these latter 20 because I just began to gather figures on them. They all though have a very few number of deaths in their states.

That left five states that exceeded 15 daily deaths: Missouri at 18; Arizona at 19, Virginia at 23; Maryland at 33; and North Carolina at 35. 

It is interesting to see that the following states are without stay at home orders: Arkansas has closed schools for the rest of the term; Iowa non-essential businesses must be closed; Massachusetts  non-essential businesses closed; Nebraska strip clubs and tattoo businesses closed; North Dakota schools are closed; Oklahoma  except for people over 65; South Dakota , Utah schools closed; Wyoming schools closed.

Of those states I am following Arkansas (37 deaths) , Iowa (64 deaths), Massachusetts (1,404 deaths), Nebraska, (24 deaths), North Dakota (9 deaths), Oklahoma (136 deaths), South Dakota (7 deaths). Other than for Massachusetts the failure to have a stay at home order does not appear to have increased the risk of being infected with Covid-19.

It will be interesting to see how the states open up but those with low death counts would seem to have little worry if we look at the states without stay at home orders other than Massachusetts. Only time will tell though.

Trump after telling the governors they could decide how to handle their states let loose on three of them the next day suggesting people liberate themselves from the stay at home orders of their governor. The usual turnout happened: ill-kempt people with AK-47s, beards and bishop bellies, and much ugly folk yelling. The states he wanted liberated were Michigan that is averaging 145 deaths a day, Virginia that has had 231 deaths, and Minnesota with 111 deaths that had been doing what he asked them to do.

Asked why he interfered, he said those states were too severe. You do have to think something is wrong with the man.


6 replies on “A Mixed Bag On Deaths from Coronavirus: Saturday Report”

  1. ”The usual turnout happened: ill-kempt people with AK-47s, beards and bishop bellies, and much ugly folk yelling.”

    Horrors! Those people were asserting their First Amendment rights and their Second Amendment rights. Better if it were more beautiful people with whom you agree.

    “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

    “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

  2. Correction: If you take the 17,000 deaths in the NYC AREA (NYC + Proximate Counties) and subtract from April 17th, 37,000, you have 20,000 deaths, you’d have 46% of the Nation’s deaths in NYC area, 54% of deaths in the rest of the U.S., so minus NYC the rest of the U.S. would have @60 deaths per million, which would put it exactly the same as Denmark and Iran (both 60) but below Portugal (67).

    The Conclusion is the same. NYC area the focal point and hot spot. With NYC area, the U.S. is still below Spain to Sweden; without NYC area the U.S. is more like the rest of Europe and Canada.

    However you look at it, the US is within an order of magnitude of most of the Western World.

  3. True on all the stats and conclusions thereof. Now is not the time for defiance of CDC or public health recommendations.

    Remember, deaths lag behind the peak. In other words, the peak in serious cases, intensive care, hospitalizations, cases, may have occurred several days or a week ago.
    In other words, the deaths we are seeing today, are persons who have become seriously ill last week or so.

    I share this too, as I like to follow these stats.

    The latest is that Little Italy in NYC was the focal point of travel from Europe, the focal point of NYC infection, and NYC the focal point of East Coast spread. Lombardy in Italy (the first and hardest hit region) was the focal point in Europe. Lombardy had a high annual influx of Chinese tourists.

    If you look closely at the data, NYC and its surrounding counties in Northern New Jersey and Long Island and the proximate counties in Connecticut account for between 50% and 63% of all deaths in the United States. (I’ll post numbers later.)

    Even if you cut the death rate in half, the U.S.’s rate is somewhere around Portugal’s,, Austria’s and Germany’s, and even Canada’s at 35 deaths per million. If you apply the 37% figure (NYC greater contiguous area accounts for 63% of cases, the U.S. deaths per million is 44, close to Slovenia, Norway and Estonia, all @30.

    Including the NYC and surrounding areas within the U.S. total, the U.S.’s death rate is about the same as Ireland’s and lower than Italy’s, Spain’s, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, U.K., Sweden.

    When you consider Order of Magnitude (usually within a factor of ten) the U.S. (minus NYC area) approximates every place from South Korea (4.6 deaths per million) to Spain and Italy (400 deaths per million). So, someone can do a bell shape curve, and show what the average is. My chart shows the the Mean of all nations is 20 deaths per million, of course that is skewed by Spain’s and Italy’s 400, and one hundred nations of one or less deaths per million. Statisticians consider Mean, Median, and Mode, the average, the mid-point, and the most frequently occurring number; something like that.

    So, let’s say the U.S. deaths are 37,000 (NYC added 4,000 “probable” deaths on April 17), then divided by 328 million we have 112 deaths per million. But if we now multiply that 112 by the 63% of deaths in the NYC area, we have 23,000 deaths, subtract from 37,000 we have about 14,000 deaths, divided by 328 million, which is 42 deaths per million, between Austria at 49 and Canada at 35.

    Even if we include the NYC area, then the U.S. is about the same as Ireland.

    1. Yesterday’s NEWS: “The U.S. reported more than 2,300 deaths on Tuesday, a new daily high, and total confirmed fatalities surpassed 26,000 (now 37,000, from my sources) with more than 603,000 infections (USA total now 710,000 cases.) New York City reported 3,778 additional fatalities, according to the city’s health department (now 4100), pushing its total beyond 10,000. The city is now including probable covid-19 deaths in its count.”

      Today’s News: As of data released April 17, New York City officials had identified an additional 4,309 probable COVID-19 deaths, which would bring the city’s total to 12,199.
      Long Island Suffolk Country @1,100, Nassau county @700
      Northern New Jersey Counties proximate to NYC another @2,000 deaths
      Southern Connecticut another @ 1,000 deaths
      So, of the Nation’s approximate 27,000 deaths, more than half (17,000; @63%) come from this NYC area alone; NYC and contiguous counties and proximate countries.

      The one caveat I have on STAY AT HOME, is people should go outside for their daily walks, bike rides and jogs, with or without masks, because the risk of transmissions from passersby who keep 6 feet distance is slow, and the benefits of exercise in strengthening the immune system is high.

      MASKS should definitely be worn in stores, groceries, pharmacies, or when you cannot maintain 6 feet. I’d also advice joggers to maintain 10 feet, just because they huff and puff and sweat, and there is a slight risk.

      Finally, I see no reason why grounds people, lawn people, house painters, construction workers who ride to sites, cannot work outdoors, provided they keep six feet separations and wash hands regularly and don’t touch their faces.

      Till then, I’ll wait till phase III to party again.

      1. Now, to prevent skewing the numbers and removing other “outliers” such as New Yorkers, if you discount the elderly from the death count the data would reflect a closer proximation the country as a whole.

      2. wa-llahi! Bill, we’ll all be dead by phase III. Glorious Leader is incompetent as are most of the political hacks who advise him. After watching the daily Trump show, how can anyone have confidence in that asshole. If he started up his bullshit in a bar, he’d get a knuckle sandwich. Being a rich kid, Trump has, probably, never tasted knuckles. It would be enlightening for him.

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