Over the last twenty-four hours we’ve seen in the original group of nine states that I was following there were 95 deaths in California the second highest number ever – on 4/12 it had 110 deaths. The prior seven days average was 59; there were 63 deaths in Georgia, its highest number to date. The prior seven days averaged 30. There were 159 deaths in Massachusetts, also its highest number to date with an average of 106 over prior seven days.
New Jersey had 322 deaths which is lower that the three preceding days of 362, 351, 362, but the prior seven days averaged to 260. New York with 630 deaths is lower than the average of the prior seven days of 732. Florida at 23 had a lower figure than the seven-day average of 42; Louisiana had 57 and the seven days prior average was 65; Texas had 35 above the seven-day average of 28; and finally Washington had 16 below the average of 21 deaths.
There were six states where the deaths exceeded the average of the prior seven days. The United States average for the seven days prior was 2,321. Its death rate in the past 24 hours was 3,816, over 50% higher than the average. It is hard to say we are at the peak.
I added after a few days nine more states to follow: Alabama had 11 deaths – its daily average over the seven days prior to that is 8.4; Arkansas had 0 deaths – its daily average over the seven days prior to that is 2.3; Colorado had 17 deaths – daily 7 day average prior 23.5; Connecticut had 65 while daily average of deaths over prior 7 days 85; Illinois had 62, 7 day daily average 78; Indiana had 42 deaths; the seven-day daily average prior to that is: 33; Michigan had 134 deaths; seven-day prior average to that is 145; Ohio had 29 deaths, 7 day prior average 25; Pennsylvania had 49 deaths – the 7 day prior average is 52; and Wisconsin had 8 deaths with 7 day prior average of 12.
That is another mixed bag. Although seven of the ten came in under average which is a good sign.
I started on another 20 states to get a better feel for the happenings. There are a group of states that had no increase in deaths or six or less. They are: Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee and Vermont.
Others had between 7 and 15 deaths: Arizona, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Iowa, Kentucky, Oklahoma,
I am unable to do a seven-day average on these latter 20 because I just began to gather figures on them. They all though have a very few number of deaths in their states.
That left five states that exceeded 15 daily deaths: Missouri at 18; Arizona at 19, Virginia at 23; Maryland at 33; and North Carolina at 35.
It is interesting to see that the following states are without stay at home orders: Arkansas has closed schools for the rest of the term; Iowa non-essential businesses must be closed; Massachusetts non-essential businesses closed; Nebraska strip clubs and tattoo businesses closed; North Dakota schools are closed; Oklahoma except for people over 65; South Dakota , Utah schools closed; Wyoming schools closed.
Of those states I am following Arkansas (37 deaths) , Iowa (64 deaths), Massachusetts (1,404 deaths), Nebraska, (24 deaths), North Dakota (9 deaths), Oklahoma (136 deaths), South Dakota (7 deaths). Other than for Massachusetts the failure to have a stay at home order does not appear to have increased the risk of being infected with Covid-19.
It will be interesting to see how the states open up but those with low death counts would seem to have little worry if we look at the states without stay at home orders other than Massachusetts. Only time will tell though.
Trump after telling the governors they could decide how to handle their states let loose on three of them the next day suggesting people liberate themselves from the stay at home orders of their governor. The usual turnout happened: ill-kempt people with AK-47s, beards and bishop bellies, and much ugly folk yelling. The states he wanted liberated were Michigan that is averaging 145 deaths a day, Virginia that has had 231 deaths, and Minnesota with 111 deaths that had been doing what he asked them to do.
Asked why he interfered, he said those states were too severe. You do have to think something is wrong with the man.