April 8 – Late Night Report – A Slow Down or Are We Fooling Ourselves.

Keeping up with the happenings in the Covid-19 pandemic we find the number of case in the U.S. has dropped from increasing at a rate of 8% to 7%. That is good news. The increase in deaths has gone down from 16% to 13% which is good news but three days ago it was 11%.

I’m not sure using the percentage increases is an accurate measurement but I will stick with it. The reason I say that is if a country has 20 cases and the next day it has 25 then the increase of 5 cases which is not significant will give us a percentage increase of which 25% sounds pretty bad. Then if the case increase is 500 from a base of 2000 that’s a significant number but it is the same percentage increase of 25%. Take the United States. Seven days ago, the percentage increase in deaths was 23% and the new daily deaths numbered 884; today the percentage increase is 14% but the number of daily deaths is 1,851.

Italy had 542 deaths over the last 24 hours but it’s percentage rate of increase fell to 3% as did the rise in the number of new cases which was 3,836. Spain percentage rate in new cases still remains steady 4% which is about 6,280 more than the day before and its death percentage rate remains at 5% based on 747 deaths over the last day. A look at the rates provides comfort but a look at the increase in deaths is still very worrisome.

As for the American States, daily deaths in California increased to a percentage of 18% from 9% while those in Florida fell from 25% to 4%. So it is pretty much all over the place depending on the accuracy of the reporting. The states with the largest percentage increases in deaths are Massachusetts, Illinois and New Jersey with 22%. The biggest percentage increase of all the states was Pennsylvania at 29%.

The average of the 19 states I am following is somewhere around a 14 or 15% daily increase in the number of deaths. That coincides fairly well with the figure for the United States. I assume that indicates the average new cases is around 8%. Our daily deaths far outpace the rest of the world in rate of increase, our daily increase of new cases at over 30,000 a day. That is a new case occurring about every three seconds.

97% of the country is under stay at home orders as is Italy and Spain. We have seen that they have steadied if not slowed the rate of increase. I’m going to watch the UK which seems to be having some difficulty because it first started off with a laissez faire attitude including thoughts of using the herd theory, a Darwinistic survival of the fitness idea, before changing course; and those hearty and stalwart  Scandinavians, the Swedes, that embraced the herd theory of letting Covid-19 have its way.

Hard to make much sense out of what faces us in the future. Maybe tomorrow will bring more clarity.

7 thoughts on “April 8 – Late Night Report – A Slow Down or Are We Fooling Ourselves.

  1. wa-llahi! I’m bored, and, we’re only into the first couple weeks of social distancing. Luckily, I have a barn full of books. I’m going to go fish for some Camu (“The Plague”). I know I have a copy, somewhere. Covid 19 looks to be a powerful purgative. Maybe, it will wash all that class serving bourgeois manure out of proletarian heads. Let’s see what the lights of yesteryear can illuminate for us.

    1. You know, Khalid, I was thinking about that, and may post a lengthy post asserting the class struggle is over, and today the clash is between liberals and conservatives, both of whom come from every class.
      Til then, I write, as I’ve written oft before: Peace to all of good will; to those not of good will, Special Forces.
      And, Lord, have mercy on us all.

  2. wa-llahi! Bill, look at today’s NYT. Think under count. Don’t sweat it, though, Glorious Leader has, already, assured his place in history. Shatan visits the human world in many forms. He’s come as snake, and, at times a goat, and, other beasts. Why could he not appear to our vision as a fat old man smeared with orange pigment wearing a toupee? As I recollect, the Khalifat Muawiya bin Abu Sufiyan, was regulary tempted by Iblis, who approached him in many forms.

  3. The epidemiologic forecasters, the biostatisticians, the modelers, THE EXPERTS, have dropped the estimate for total deaths in the U.S. to @ 60,000.

    Here’s a story: Headline, “Experts Guess” 60,000 deaths: https://www.azfamily.com/news/us_world_news/experts-guess-us-coronavirus-Well, yes, but they’re educated guesses and their “guesses” are based on hard science, and their “guesses” are published in peer reviewed on-line journals, for all the other experts in medicine, public health, virology, infectious diseases, epidemiology, and biostatistics, to review and evaluate.

    2. The debate continues on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine. One L.A. doctor says it absolutely works when combined with ZINC. All negative studies must now be re-examined to see if zinc was used:

    Dr. Anthony Cardillo said he has seen very promising results when prescribing hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc for the most severely-ill COVID-19 patients.

    APRIL 7: “Every patient I’ve prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free,” Cardillo told Eyewitness News. “So clinically I am seeing a resolution.”

    Cardillo is the CEO of Mend Urgent Care, which has locations in Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys and Burbank.

    He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.

    He added that the drug should not be prescribed for those who are presenting only mild symptoms, as there are concerns about shortages for patients with other conditions who need to take the drug on a regular basis.

    “We have to be cautious and mindful that we don’t prescribe it for patients who have COVID who are well,” Cardillo said. “It should be reserved for people who are really sick, in the hospital or at home very sick, who need that medication. Otherwise we’re going to blow through our supply for patients that take it regularly for other disease processes.”

    Thousands of doctors throughout the nation are prescribing hydroxychloroquine, some reporting success, some equivocal, some reporting failure. The adverse side effects are real, and have been known for decades. Increase QT interval, aortic tears (I learned yesterday), and patients have to be closely monitored, and are. But both the American Cardiology Association and American Pulmonary Thoracic Society (I think that’s their name) have approved its use, with the usual precautions to carefully monitor, as all good physicians do.

    We’ll know more in a week or two when a ton more data is in.

    As I’ve said before: I do hope politics is not biasing or clouding these investigations. We’ll await the results of carefully controlled double blind “case-control” studies.

  4. ma-sha-allah, the dead are accumulating. Many people did not make to the hospital to expire. NY paramedics are finding hundreds of bodies in homes and apartments. Rahim Allah.
    What to do about plague profiteers? Flying Troikas would discourage such activities.

    1. All those bodies will be tested for Covid19.
      Throughout human history, persons have been found dead in their beds, days after their demise.

      1. The flip side is over-counting. Today, the CDC is counting everyone who has died WITH covid, as dying FROM covid. We know that ain’t true, and retrospective studies may delete, who knows, 10-20-30% of reported deaths.
        A second consideration is life expectancy: Since many reported deaths from covid 19 are in elderly with co-morbidities, even if covid hastened death, would death have occurred anyway this year within another X% of cases? Ann Coulter wrote today if you’ve got Stage IV lung cancer (<90% death rate)and a bullet through the heart (99.9% death rate) you'll still be listed as a Covid death. On the other hand if the CDC did not count all deaths as Covid deaths, the MSM would crucify them for under-reporting and "hiding" info and lack of transparency.

        A third consideration: Did all this sheltering in place decrease flu-deaths, automobile deaths, etc. Or did all the social isolation increase deaths from suicide, alcoholism, drug addiction, domestic violence . . .folks going stir crazy. Did all the fear increase stress impair the immune system and lower the population's ability to fight off disease in general. A post-traumatic stress effect?

        The epidemiologists will sort it all out after the fact. Retrospective studies will give us more definitive answers.

        Remember, too, Medicine is both an art and a science. Public Health more so an art, more like sociology than physiology. Nevertheless, in all sciences there is room for doubt, uncertainty and human error. In all art, there is room for opinions. In all fields, there is room for study, experimentation and reflection.

        Think of fishing from a motor boat off Cape Cod. There's a science and art to it. There are risks and benefits to it, too.

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