Keeping up with the happenings in the Covid-19 pandemic we find the number of case in the U.S. has dropped from increasing at a rate of 8% to 7%. That is good news. The increase in deaths has gone down from 16% to 13% which is good news but three days ago it was 11%.
I’m not sure using the percentage increases is an accurate measurement but I will stick with it. The reason I say that is if a country has 20 cases and the next day it has 25 then the increase of 5 cases which is not significant will give us a percentage increase of which 25% sounds pretty bad. Then if the case increase is 500 from a base of 2000 that’s a significant number but it is the same percentage increase of 25%. Take the United States. Seven days ago, the percentage increase in deaths was 23% and the new daily deaths numbered 884; today the percentage increase is 14% but the number of daily deaths is 1,851.
Italy had 542 deaths over the last 24 hours but it’s percentage rate of increase fell to 3% as did the rise in the number of new cases which was 3,836. Spain percentage rate in new cases still remains steady 4% which is about 6,280 more than the day before and its death percentage rate remains at 5% based on 747 deaths over the last day. A look at the rates provides comfort but a look at the increase in deaths is still very worrisome.
As for the American States, daily deaths in California increased to a percentage of 18% from 9% while those in Florida fell from 25% to 4%. So it is pretty much all over the place depending on the accuracy of the reporting. The states with the largest percentage increases in deaths are Massachusetts, Illinois and New Jersey with 22%. The biggest percentage increase of all the states was Pennsylvania at 29%.
The average of the 19 states I am following is somewhere around a 14 or 15% daily increase in the number of deaths. That coincides fairly well with the figure for the United States. I assume that indicates the average new cases is around 8%. Our daily deaths far outpace the rest of the world in rate of increase, our daily increase of new cases at over 30,000 a day. That is a new case occurring about every three seconds.
97% of the country is under stay at home orders as is Italy and Spain. We have seen that they have steadied if not slowed the rate of increase. I’m going to watch the UK which seems to be having some difficulty because it first started off with a laissez faire attitude including thoughts of using the herd theory, a Darwinistic survival of the fitness idea, before changing course; and those hearty and stalwart Scandinavians, the Swedes, that embraced the herd theory of letting Covid-19 have its way.
Hard to make much sense out of what faces us in the future. Maybe tomorrow will bring more clarity.