I’m beginning to wonder if there is a problem in reporting cases. The disparity in numbers in the states do not seem to make much sense.
Take the states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey. The population in these states is about 38.66 million. The number of deaths in those four states over the last 24 hours is: 1,095.
Then take Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, and Indiana. The population in these six states is about twice that of the other four, 75.76 million. The number of deaths in these six states over the last 24 hours is: 67.
Four States have 1,095 new cases; six states with twice the population have 67 case. Massachusetts with 70 deaths had more than the six states. What is going on that makes this great difference?
The four states went into earlier lockdowns that the other six. Is there anything particularly significant about those states that would make them have that enormous difference? Has anyone with scientific knowledge reached out and explained this. Isn’t this one thing that we should know before we go much further is why this is so?
There’s a report done by U.S. News ranking the states on health care: The states in the group of four, Massachusetts and Connecticut are ranked 2nd and 3rd , New Jersey 6th, New York 13th.
The states in the other six are: Arkansas is 49th, Alabama is 46th, Indiana 40th, Georgia 39th, Texas 37th, and Florida 29th. Another report on the unhealthiest states at 48: “Arkansas has a high prevalence of obesity, physical inactivity, and smoking;” 47. “Alabama has a high prevalence of cardiovascular deaths and diabetes;” 41. “Georgia has among the least physically active states, some of the highest child poverty rates, and a relatively high percentage of uninsured people.”
How is it that the states with the least healthy people have so few Covid-19 cases and deaths?
This brought me to wondering what the death rate was in these states I have mentioned compared to the number of positive cases they detected. I assumed that once a person contracts Covid-19 the chances for survival would be pretty much equal across the board. The World Health Organization on March 3 noted: “Globally, about 3.4% of reported Covid-19 cases have died.” More recent estimates have it ranging from 1% to 3.4%. The present United States figure is 3.97% based on 55,398 cases and 22,023 deaths.
I did a chart to determine this. I believed that the number of deaths from people testing positive would be relatively similar. It was far from that. The range went from 0% in Wyoming where they have 261 positive cases and no deaths to 6.04% deaths in Michigan where they have 24,638 positive tests and 1,487 deaths.
Our groups of four and six cases showed the following. The four state: New York 4.97%, Connecticut 4.60%, New Jersey 3.8% and Massachusetts 2.97%. Two states are below the national average is 3.97.
The six states show: Texas 2.01%, Arkansas 2.11%, Florida 2.4%, Alabama 2.64%, Georgia 3.48%, and Indiana 4.33%. Five states are below the national average.
If we eliminate New York and Michigan from the national average we end up with a 3.25% rate. Texas with its 2.01% and Arkansas with its 2.11% rate and Florida with its 2.4% rate are almost a full point or more below the national average at the lower rate.
What makes me suspicious is that Texas, Arkansas, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Indiana all have Republican governors. The four states have Democratic governors except for Massachusetts which has a Republican governor but not one from the Trump Party. I have to wonder if the figures are being skewed by Republican governors to please Trump who is pushing to get people back to work regardless of the consequences to their health. I suggest that is something we should know.
Bill. These statistics are useless.
Today’s data (April 13, 2020) is from the two sources I’ve cited previously. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
1. Total Deaths: USA 23,555.
Total Deaths per state: Top 5: New York 10,056, New Jersey 2,443, Michigan 1,602, Louisiana 884, Massachusetts 844.
You can see that the top three states have 60% of the deaths and New York has 43% of them. Simple math. NYC is likely responsible for high death rates in northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut, and throughout these bordering, contiguous, proximate states. NYC metro area is first place in USA described as a hot spot, where cases skyrocketed.
Bottom 5: Wyoming 1, South Dakota 6, North Dakota, Montana 7, Alaska 8 total deaths.
2. Total Deaths per Million. (a most useful statistic because you can compare it with other countries.) Western Europe and USA got hit hardest; Eastern Europe less; East Asia less; Africa least, to date.
USA 71 deaths per million:
Top 7: New York 513, New Jersey 275, Louisiana 190, Michigan 161, Connecticut 168, Massachusetts 124, District of Columbia 76.
Nine States have 10 or fewer deaths per million ( Wyoming 2, West Virginia 5, Hawaii 6, Utah 6, Montana 7, South Dakota 7, Nebraska 9, Arkansas 9, Texas 10; the rest are between 11 and 71, with most under 40.)
Compare deaths per million in Europe (Vice President Mike Pence said tonight the European Union has three times the deaths per million as the U.S)
Spain 350, Italy 322, Belgium 289, France 212, Netherlands 154, U.K. 145, Sweden 88, U.S. 71, Ireland 65, Germany 32, Norway 18; Poland 6, Ukraine 1.7, then outside Europe, a few examples: Brazil 5.2, South Korea, 4.17, Australia 2.14, See Easter Eve post for more data. The World average is about 4, and about 90 countries are less, many less than 1.0. See Discussion, Easter Eve.
New York has more cases per million than Spain and Italy; Wyoming has less per million than South Korea and Australia.
P.S. CNN, MSNBC, New York Times, et al, are blatantly lying to you, directly, by innuendo and by omission. Compare timelines posted earlier today and previously. Note the phony question: If we had acted earlier, could we have prevented more deaths? It’s rhetorical. Of course! Think of all the lives we’d have saved if we discovered penicillin earlier, or the polio vaccine, or if we’d have started mitigation measures before Christmas 2019. The fact is the Trump Administration acted decisively with the available data it had.
Peter Navarro wrote a memo in January saying a Pandemic may occur, and yet again, maybe it wont. Peter Navarro is an economist, not a public health expert. The public health experts were equivocal, until February 25, when the CDC said schools MAY have to be closed. Even on Feb 29, Doctor Facia said the risk was “low.” Tonight he said whatever mitigation measures the health experts suggested President Trump adopted: the 15 days to lessen the curve plan, then the additional 30 days to lessen the curve plan.
Et Cetera!
Also, I’ll get the hard data tonight. Your opening premise is false: States hit hard may have acted a bit earlier, but that’s because of public hue and outcry, and states with few cases and few deaths, may of course have acted a bit slower.
More importantly: CHECK OUT THE NEW YORK TIMES’ WORDS:
“Federal health officials starkly warned on Tuesday that the new coronavirus will almost certainly spread in the United States, and that hospitals, businesses and schools should begin making preparations.”
(February 25 Tuesday, the same day of the Presidential Debate, asking two questions about coronavirus, one of which referenced the CDC statement: CDC said schools may have to close, what do you think? was the basic question.)
The NYT FORGETS ITS OWN TIMELINE: Here’s the key words from the NYT own fEBRUARY 25 article: “But given the outbreaks in more than two dozen countries, officials at the C.D.C. seemed convinced that the virus’s spread in the United States was inevitable, although they did not know whether the impact would be mild or severe.” FEBRUARY 25, 2020
DOCTOR FAUCI: “You need to do nothing different than you’re already doing,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a news briefing. Federal officials were only trying to tell Americans that if an outbreak occurs, he added, “these are THE KINDS OF THINGS YOU WANT TO THINK OF” SO ON MARCH 25 HE WASN’T RECOMMENDING SOCIAL DISTANCING, SCHOOL CLOSURES, OR ANYTHING ELSE
THE NIH:
“It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a news briefing.She said that cities and towns should plan for “social distancing measures,” like dividing school classes into smaller groups of students or closing schools altogether. Meetings and conferences may have to be canceled, she said. Businesses should arrange for employees to work from home.
Again the New York Times forgets its own words.
“As of Tuesday, (Feb 25th) the United States has just 57 cases, 40 of them connected to the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship overwhelmed by the coronavirus after it docked in Japan. Those patients are in isolation in hospitals, and there are no signs of sustained transmission in American communities.” NOTE THOSE ARE THE NYT WORDS: “NO SIGNS OF SUSTAINED TRANSMISSION IN AMERICAN COMMUNITIES.”
I’ll get the hard data tonight. It’s somewhere on one of my two computers, or I’ll readily reconstruct. It basically says who the highest hit states are, and I’ll speculate why: congested, hit early; southern states more spaced out, hit later. It’s like in Europe where a half dozen states have up to five times the deaths per capita as the U.S., some double, some three times, etc, and many Western European States have death rates of the same order of magnitude as the U.S. I posted this data on eve of Easter.
Dr. Fauci’s statement, above, was February 25th, not March 25th. He also said on February 29th, that the virus presented a “low risk” echoing Feb 19th and earlier February estimates of CDC, NIH, etc.
Bill. Please. Don’t.
Western Europe which is a densely packed population similar to NY and NJ has been hit the hardest. Congested places with public transportation, housing and many elevators along with cold weather have higher rates. More spaced out areas with a milder climate such as Texas and Florida have less. California and Washington have Democrat governors and less cases so there goes your conspiracy theory. Australia which is closer in climate to the American sunbelt has fewer cases. Stop blaming the Republicans . China is to blame here. China is the sole cause of the epidemic. No one in America is culpable. 2.JPC is right. Sec of State Bill Galvin has urged all residents of Massachusetts to fill out the census forms otherwise the State will lose Federal funding for certain programs. Do higher numbers mean more money?
Isn’t it more likely that the democrat governors are spiking their states’ numbers to garner more federal support?
Maybe they’ll start executing people. Who’l Know?
1. Bias, political or otherwise, is the first thing epidemiologists try to eliminate in their studies. We all have biases. Some are glaring. Investigators also distinguish Associations from Causations.
2. Here’s some considerations: I’m on my upstairs laptop. My laptop downstairs has the hard data I’ll share later. So, this is my best recollection off the top of my head, without exaggeration. Just the facts, Jack.
3. INTROUDCTION: All observations are welcome, and there are no bad observations. All opinions are welcome. All questions are welcome. How else do we learn, but having an open mind, and considering pros and cons, and ALL the DATA available?
4. TIMELINE: Keep the timeline in mind: CDC on @ February 2, “low risk”; CDC on February 19, “low risk”. CDC on February 25 “may have to shut down schools”. Dr. Faucia, top N.I.H. investigator in response to a Feb 25 Question what should we do? Answered, Nothing. Just keep doing what we’re doing and keep an eye on things.(I’ll get exact quote later). February 29, Boston Globe science expert after speaking with all the local scientists/experts wrote an article saying we don’t know what the Virus will do; it could be mild, affecting only a few or it could be severe; he also wrote Don’t wear face masks; they do not protect you from getting the virus.
5. So, with that readily available public information in mind: how did the States react? Well Washington and California, the first hit, reacted quickly and have kept their rates down, even though until middle or late February politician Nancy Pelosi was urging folks to come on down to Chinatown, “we’ve got everything under control “ Words to that effect. Public Health authorities ignored her wisdom-less words. And I don’t blame Nancy. Everyone in U.S. in mid-February thought we had things under control. The first CDC warning I’m aware of came on February 25. Remember, the W.H.O did not declare a Pandemic until March 11.
6. How did other states react to the CDC’s 25th news, first aired on the Presidential Debate that day, when a total of four minutes and just two questions were given to Coronavirus. (That, incidentally, is a measure of how much journalists were concerned in late February.) DATA: Let’s see: (I’ll post the hard data later). The four leading states in cases and deaths are New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Massachusetts. Together, they account for 60% of deaths. New York alone for 40%. New York infested proximate New Jersey and proximate Connecticut. New York was not only reluctant to shut down schools, but encouraging folks to “come on downtown” and congregate, early in March. Mayor Di Blasio, expressed doubt early on and did not close public schools till Monday March 16. Similarly, Boston Mayor Walsh, changed his mind late, and closed public schools effective Tuesday, March 17. (2) The top four states have large congested cities, tons of visitors.(so does Florida) (3) The top four states have liberal Governors who bucked the Administration’s and CDC’s advice. But so did almost every governor, mayor, public health department in U.S.. and so did almost every President of every University, all the medical schools, and every President, Chancellor, Prime Minister etc, of every Western European Country.
Why?
A. Read Camus’ THE PLAGUE: we were caught off guard and in denial.
B.China’s belated disclosure of info led to world-renowned experts believing that Covid-19 was like SARS, a few hundred deaths, quickly contained in Asia. Who says so? Doctor Birx, for one;
AND C. HUMAN ERROR AT NIH/CDC (THE FIRST TESTS SENT OUT WERE DEFECTIVE, setting back nationwide testing) and Bureaucratic Bungling and Bureaucratic Red Tape (NIH, CDC and FDA) caused delays in allowing Commercial and Academic Laboratories to develop their own tests, and delays in approving off-label uses of potentially life saving drugs. Et cetera.
8. The differences in case rates per capita and death rates per capita involve many different socio-cultural, genetic, demographic, geologic (congested areas versus open plains) co-morbidities, underlying predispositions, etc. Yesterday, Doctor Faucia was asked by Chris Wallace if we could have saved more lives if we acted earlier; as mentioned above, Faucia said, Yes, and expounded a bit about doing more testing and social isolation, et cetera, but he forgot his own February 25th statement when asked what we as a nation should do then, he said, Nothing! Nothing more than we are presently doing. Until we get more information.
9. Finally, the answer is “No”, liberal governors do not love their people more than conservative governors, but that is a liberal conceit, isn’t it, that they care more for the poor than moderates or conservatives, that Republicans are mainly moved by power and money and re-elections, unlike the lib Dems who only care for bigger government, more taxes, more money for welfare, while Republicans only care to give welfare recipients jobs. As Joe Biden said, “jobs, a three letter word, j.o.b.s.”
Nice to see Bonespurs react in such a responsible way when the top infectious disease expert in the country makes a simple statement of opinion. Again, it is not about the people he serves. It is about him.