It is strange dealing with percentages. The US deaths over the last four days has been 2061, 1851, 1977, and 1965. The percentage increase over the last 4 days has been 19%, 14%, 13% and 12%. The percentages show a decline but the actual deaths remain about the same.
With respect to new positive cases over the same period they have been 33,462, 30867, 36277, and 31,206. The percentage increase are 9%. 8%, 8%,and 6%. The number of new cases still hover above thirty thousand. I’m thinking that rather than looking at the percentage increase or decrease a better figure is to look at the actual numbers. These suggest the USA is holding steady at a certain level which is good because the increase is not there but bad because we would like to see the level coming down more.
I’ll stick with actual figures.
Italy over the last 5 days in cases: 3,599, 3,039, 3,836, 4,204, 3,591. These are down from the average of much over 4,000 so it seems to have slowed down somewhat.
Italy in deaths over the five days: 636, 604, 542, 1,060, 123. The reported figures are off because the last two days have numbers way out of the norm. These too show an improvement down from 700 plus.
Spain over the last 5 days in cases: 5,029, 5,267, 6,278, 5,002, 5,051. These are down from the average of much over 7,000 so it seems to have slowed down somewhat.
Spain in deaths over the five days: 700, 704, 747, 655, 634. Spain has been in the 700s and 800s so these too show a slow down in deaths.
UK I have only two days worth of figures: new positive cases 4,398, 5,733 showing a clear upswing; and deaths 882, and 981 another increase. Not going the proper way so is worrisome.
Sweden: Again only two days worth: new positive cases 722, 644; deaths 106, 77. This is looking good at this time.
++++++++++++++++++++
THE STATES
The US rate of new positive cases was 6% but the following states had at least a 13% increase: Colorado 30%, Connecticut 18%, Illinois 23%, Indiana 22%, Michigan 19%, Pennsylvania 23%, Wisconsin 15%, Massachusetts 19%, New Jersey 14%, Texas 14%
The last four days of deaths in these states are:
Colorado : 10, 29, 14, 57
Connecticut: 71, 50, 53, 68
Illinois: 73, 82, 66, 68
Indiana: 39, 30, 42, 55
Massachusetts: 96, 70, 77, 96
Michigan: 116, 114, 117, 205
New Jersey: 229, 272, 196, 232
Pennsylvania: 78, 69, 29, 78
Texas: 14, 21, 24, 27
Wisconsin 15, 7, 12, 17
Every state reported more deaths than it had the day before. New York which notes its hospitalizations have come way down reported of the last four days its deaths have been: 731, 779, 799, and 777. I suggest the state figures show the deaths are still on the upswing. These are a lagging figure. They ae also understated because people dying at home don’t seem to figure into them nor as I have read do people who come to the hospital and die before they are tested for coronavirus.
But that is not what we are interested in any event. We’re looking for a down swing. It’s too early judging from the deaths to say that we are seeing one.
For any series of daily figures, it may be helpful to take the average of the five most recent figures. Repeat the process for each consecutive set of five readings, beginning with Day 5. Doing so may help to reduce unwarranted optimism or pessimism, as the case may be.
To keep the coronavirus impact in perspective, it is worth noting that just 4 countries in Western Europe with only 3/4ths of the US population have about the same number of cases, and 3 times the number of deaths compared to the good old USA.
Nice job, President Trump and team !!!
Matt: Today’s late night data: from “NPR: Map: Tracking The Spread Of The Coronavirus In The U.S. April 10, 2020, 8:15 PM ET”
New York represents 21% of cases and 42% of deaths nation wide. New York Population is about 6%. Of U.S. So, about 4 times as many cases and 7x as many deaths, proportionally.
Massachusetts: 4% cases, 3% deaths. Mass population is about 2% of U.S., So, twice as many cases, and proportionally about the same in deaths.
The Washington Modeling that the CDC relies on now predicts 60,000 deaths. If Mass sticks at that 3%, it would end up with @1,800 deaths. Last year it had 1,900 deaths from opiate overdoses, alone. Charlie Baker initially predicted between 900 and 3,400 deaths.
The Washington modeling I cited about two weeks ago predicted 81,000 deaths nationwide. (I don’t know if they’re the same; it could have been an independent epidemiologist from Washington State.)
The Models could be way off. The modelers admit that. No one knows for sure. A lot of uncertainty is built into this. Why? Because it is unprecedented. We have never had nationwide shutdowns and stay at home orders before. And we haven’t faced a virus this virulent since 1917-18; the SARS and MERS viruses may have been as virulent, but they were contained early. SARS was stopped dead in its tracks in Asia.
So, who knows? CDC expert Doctor Fauci said tonight that folks would have to wear masks at next Fall’s football games.
Here’s what I’d like the CDC modelers to display. The total cases and deaths caused by the shut-down, stay at home orders, unemployment, etc. The true number of deaths due to Covid, rather than all the deaths of those dying WITH coronavirus.
As you said, folks are dying at home of Coronavirus. A surgeon told me yesterday they’re not doing autopsies. So, we don’t know how many brought to the morgue are tested for Covid. (I’ll look that up.) Even if all are, we don’t know if they died because of or just with. Some reported that anyone who dies with Covid-like symptoms (high fever, pneumonia) is counted as a Covid death, even without testing.
So, we need ongoing multifactorial analyses.
Only retrospective studies will splice this all out.
For now, we’ve all just got to sit tight, take every precaution, follow the experts’ advice, sweat it out, stew in our juices, blog more, read more, watch more old movies, and try to get a walk in every day.
Today, I cleaned my room . . .etc. Next week, the yard.
I’m going upstairs to bed to read Camus’ the Plague. A niece recommended it.
Roger! Over and out! 12:22 A.M., April 11, 2020, Holy Saturday.