Late NIght Thoughts – Palm Sunday – April 5

At the mini-rally held by Trump both he and his vice president said they are beginning to see “a glimmer” of light relative to the Covid-19 situation. It seemed that the were echoing Governor Cuomo who earlier in the day pointed to a downturn in the number of deaths in New York.

The medical professionals at the mini-rally also seemed to feel that the outlook had become a little brighter. They now seem to be backing down for the idea that there may be 100,000 to 200,000 deaths to a figure somewhat under 100,000 which is being reflected in their models. The attribute this to the American people staying at home and following the social distancing guidelines.

They also point to the experiences in Italy and Spain. I noted yesterday that the daily death figures in those countries seemed to have stabilized and were coming down. I looked again at the figures today.

The rise in the number of cases and deaths in Italy have come down to the lowest figure in weeks being only 3%; as for Spain the number of positive case increased four percent which is its lowest figure in a while and the death total was 5% again its lowest figure. Recall that Italy had a daily positive cases and deaths rate of increase as high as 13% while Spain’s rate in both areas was at one time 15%. This is all good news showing the overall effect of the lock down orders in those countries.

The rate of increase in positive cases in the United States is 8% which is a big drop from the double-digit increases we have seen almost since the beginning of the pandemic. The rate of death increase was 13% which while high is lower than any increase since March 25.

We are still though out pacing Spain and Italy since the death rates were around  4,000. We are now at 9,617, while Italy is at 7,503 and Spain at  8,464 over the same day span.

With respect to the nine states that  I am following and their death rates I note that except for Texas that has gone from 14% to 17% and Louisiana that has increased from 10% to 14% all the other states have decreased their percentages. (Figures for Georgia were not available.)

Putting it all together there is cause for cautious optimism mainly because as Trump and the doctors suggest the American people are self isolating and social distancing. The first robin does not make the spring and we’ll have to see what the next few days bring.

According to the people at Trump’s session tonight – as  well as the surgeon general who inspires little confidence in me saying it is going to be like Pearl Harbor but then again comparing it to smoking deaths as if smoking is a virus passed on to other people who end up in the hospital – the next days up to a week or so are going to be very bad. It’s hard for me to square that with the optimistic figures that are coming out.

I fail to see how we will reach 100,000 cases prior to the relaxing of the stay at home orders; but what I fear is that when those orders are lifted we will end up going back through this cycle again. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the matter but for now let us hold our breath and believe as Trump and Pence say there is a glimmer of hope.

8 thoughts on “Late NIght Thoughts – Palm Sunday – April 5

  1. Wa-llahi! Glorious Leader has found the cure! I have a one-word reply, “Thalidomide.” Google it.

    All praise to the proletarian excellence of the nurses, and, doctors, on the front line. You make the meaning of being human. All praise to the logistical tail that keeps us alive. There are no banksters, and, or, hedge fund traitors, in that vital bucket brigade. Down with the bourgeiosie, up with the revolution. All power to the dialectic.

      1. Ed,

        The only thing that saved Americans from the horror of thalidomide was the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Let’s let double blind studies tell us if Trump’s snake-oil is effect against Covid 19. Clearing the drug without proper studies risks repeating the thalidomide tragedy.

  2. Looking at, and trying to make sense of, various virus projections, models and reports puts Mark Twain’s quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” front and center. Not that I don’t trust government figures, after all it was I who created an infinite number in an LEAA report “the amount of fraud prevented by the very existence of the White Collar Crime unit”…in a slow quarter lacking actual numbers …and I do know how Massachusetts awarded payment to Massachusetts Thoroughbred Horse by way of a one-horse race at Suffolk Downs ( no betting and time was NOT very good) so I do look at projections with more than a pinch of salt….therefore, I just say my wobbly prayers that this virus will pass over most of us as we draw near to Passover and Easter. Stay well all.

    1. There are promising signs, but things will be bad for a while, and sudden reversals can occur. Let’s hope and pray and take care and abide by CDC and Public Health advisories. Wearing masks in stores and congested places, I get. While outdoors walking? is overkill, in my humble opinion. But keep 6 foot separation even while walking or jogging outdoors. Most do. On my daily walks I pass about 100 hundred people and see three with masks, two of whom are wearing them improperly. One day I saw two college students and one elderly gentleman walk by and all had their masks below their noses.

      On another front: DOMESTIC ANIMALS:

      (1) From the American Veterinary Medical Association: (AVMA is top dog, like the AMA): APRIL 5, 2020:
      “While two dogs (Hong Kong) and two cats (one in Belgium and one in Hong Kong) living with people diagnosed with COVID-19 have been reported to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, other dogs and cats also living with infected people remain uninfected. . . . To date the CDC has not received any reports of pets becoming sick with COVID-19 in the United States. Infectious disease experts and multiple international and domestic human and animal health organizations continue to agree there is no evidence at this point to indicate that, under natural conditions, pets spread COVID-19 to people.”

      (2) Belgian Household Cat tested positive on March 31:. “A cat appears to have caught the coronavirus, but it’s complicated
      There is no evidence that cats can transmit the virus to people.”

      “In the United States, a company called Idexx Laboratories has developed its own diagnostic test to detect genetic material from SARS-CoV-2 in animals. From February 14 to March 12, Idexx says that it tested over 4,000 dogs, cats and horses from the United States and South Korea. None has been positive for the virus. While the tests did include animals from hot spots like Seattle, it’s unknown if any of the animals lived in homes with people that had COVID-19. Idexx is continuing to test animals and has expanded its pool of subjects to Europe and Canada.”

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