At the mini-rally held by Trump both he and his vice president said they are beginning to see “a glimmer” of light relative to the Covid-19 situation. It seemed that the were echoing Governor Cuomo who earlier in the day pointed to a downturn in the number of deaths in New York.
The medical professionals at the mini-rally also seemed to feel that the outlook had become a little brighter. They now seem to be backing down for the idea that there may be 100,000 to 200,000 deaths to a figure somewhat under 100,000 which is being reflected in their models. The attribute this to the American people staying at home and following the social distancing guidelines.
They also point to the experiences in Italy and Spain. I noted yesterday that the daily death figures in those countries seemed to have stabilized and were coming down. I looked again at the figures today.
The rise in the number of cases and deaths in Italy have come down to the lowest figure in weeks being only 3%; as for Spain the number of positive case increased four percent which is its lowest figure in a while and the death total was 5% again its lowest figure. Recall that Italy had a daily positive cases and deaths rate of increase as high as 13% while Spain’s rate in both areas was at one time 15%. This is all good news showing the overall effect of the lock down orders in those countries.
The rate of increase in positive cases in the United States is 8% which is a big drop from the double-digit increases we have seen almost since the beginning of the pandemic. The rate of death increase was 13% which while high is lower than any increase since March 25.
We are still though out pacing Spain and Italy since the death rates were around 4,000. We are now at 9,617, while Italy is at 7,503 and Spain at 8,464 over the same day span.
With respect to the nine states that I am following and their death rates I note that except for Texas that has gone from 14% to 17% and Louisiana that has increased from 10% to 14% all the other states have decreased their percentages. (Figures for Georgia were not available.)
Putting it all together there is cause for cautious optimism mainly because as Trump and the doctors suggest the American people are self isolating and social distancing. The first robin does not make the spring and we’ll have to see what the next few days bring.
According to the people at Trump’s session tonight – as well as the surgeon general who inspires little confidence in me saying it is going to be like Pearl Harbor but then again comparing it to smoking deaths as if smoking is a virus passed on to other people who end up in the hospital – the next days up to a week or so are going to be very bad. It’s hard for me to square that with the optimistic figures that are coming out.
I fail to see how we will reach 100,000 cases prior to the relaxing of the stay at home orders; but what I fear is that when those orders are lifted we will end up going back through this cycle again. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the matter but for now let us hold our breath and believe as Trump and Pence say there is a glimmer of hope.