Yes, it is said today is the day when the person in the clothes of the president will tell us what he decided with respect to Iran. He must decide whether to abide by an agreement with Iran that we entered into with our European allies, Russia and China; or whether to abandon that agreement because of his desire to satisfy the longings and prayers of Benjamin Netanyahu who has been coveting war against Iran for many years.
The odds are that he will side with Netanyahu. He has already shown his subservience to him by moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. All who have followed the Netanyahu saga know that his falling out with Obama was because of the latter’s unwillingness to war with Iran but to try to bring peace to the region.
Indications that Trump will bail is his hiring of John Bolton a strong advocate for attacking Iran and his promotion to secretary of state Mike Pompeo who, as we all know, made his initial trip abroad in that position to pay homage to Netanyahu (who by the way is right now preparing to travel to Moscow to pay homage to Putin). While Pompeo was there Netanyahu made a big splash alleging he had documents showing Iran had plans to build a nuclear weapon. Those with the greatest insight into Iran shrugged. The documents were ancient and well-known for many years. But Pompeo, was duly impressed and acted as if Netanyahu had come up with something new.
Trump, though, in his usual way, by now this too should be familiar to everyone, will set the table so that it appears Iran is the one walking away from the agreement. He will, I suggest, say he is withdrawing from the agreement while at the same time asserting that he will gladly enter into a new better agreement with Iran if certain conditions which are unacceptable to Iran are met. This will allow him to shift the blame from himself to Iran so later he will blame Iran for the failure of the agreement. We have seen this with the DACA matter, the Dreamers, where he abrogated the agreement entered into by Obama and then blamed Democrats for being unable to come up with a bill to help the Dreamers.
As part of the pitch for withdrawing, Trump will take a script, probably written by Netanyahu, pointing to all the evil things that Iran has done. He’ll talk about it killing American soldiers in Iraq and aiding terrorist groups that threaten Israel. These are the first drums of war – sort of like we saw with Iraq – the beginning of the propaganda which will lead to the eventual bombing war of Iran.
Yes, it will be a war in which few Americans suffer casualties. Americans are unhappy when its warriors get killed. There will be a great deal of death in store for the women, children and civilians in Iran which never bothers those at home. Trump will insist we are not at war against the Iranian people, even though we will be killing them, but are at war with the regime, most of who will not suffer because of the air attacks.
An article in March noted: “The views that Trump and Pompeo share – hatred toward the Iranian government and support of Israel’s far right – are a recipe for a US-Iran military confrontation. Perhaps the only way to avoid such a confrontation is a European intervention to prevent Trump from taking the first step toward it; i.e. re-imposing crippling sanctions on Iran.” Europe tried and failed. Two things still stand in the way of the war: Putin and Nobel. Trump covets the Nobel Peace Prize because his predecessor received it. Iran is an ally of Putin so he has to be offered a deal he can’t refuse to OK the US attack.
Of course I could be wrong but what are the odds against that? Stay tuned.