Trump’s Big Gamble: Iran Is Too Afraid To Fight

Happy New Year as we start off with an unprecedented assassination of a  foreign national leader from a country who we are not at war with.  The rationale being that General Soleimani was a bad person,  to quote Trump, “Soleimani was responsible for numerous deaths, including of thousands of Americans, . . .”  He then added” “He was directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people, including the recent large number …. of PROTESTERS killed in Iran itself.”

Plus, as put out by the Defense Department, “General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.”

Logic would suggest that if true General Soleimani had been doing this for a long time. He would probably have been involved as far back as 2003  when Bush invaded Iraq. The question then is why after 17 years it was now time to assassinate him?

It is not that Trump just gained his office and learned this. He sat on it for three years himself without doing anything. Then why did he do it now since what Soleimani was doing was nothing different from he had been doing throughout those three years.

Some suggest it has something to do with changing the discussion from the impeachment trial. Others that because we have started a war with Iran we cannot possibly have the president distracted by the trial during this time so it must be postponed. That certainly is a consideration given the timing.

I suggest to understand this you have to consider Trump’s foreign policy. It can be surmised by “speak loudly and carry a big quill.” Trump wants to avoid military casualties at all costs.  That explains his abandoning of the Kurds and the re-stationing of America troops in safer parts of Syria. It explains his dealings with North Korea, Afghanistan, Syria and Venezuela. He believes he can defeat our foes through his threats, bluster ending in negotiations by penning agreements.

Trump wants  the biggest military in the world but he does not want to use it in a  way that will endanger any of its members. That has become obvious on the world stage. He though does not recognize this and still believes his bluster will carry the day.

It is clear from Trump’s taunting tweet earlier this day where he wrote: “Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!”  Trump believes that the assassination of Soleimani is a one and done. He does not expect Iran will respond. That is his big gamble that Iran will come crawling to him seeking mercy. As Pompeo noted  he hopes Iran’s “decision will be to deescalate” rather than pursue a course of retaliation.”  Doesn’t Pompeo see the irony calling upon Iran to deescalate what Trump just escalated?

The Soleimani hit seems very Mafia-like  thinking. One group believes if it knocks of the leader of another group the other group will call uncle.  Sometimes it works.

Iran though is not the Mafia. It is run by a group of people with strong religious beliefs called ayatollahs. Its leader is Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei.   He, and he alone, although after discussions with his counsel, will decide what the response to Trump’s attack on his general will be.  At one time Khamenei was an adviser to and supervisor of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards as shown above in the photograph during the Iraq/Iran war.

Wikipedia Notes: “Koleimani was promoted to Major General by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  Khamenei was described as having a close relationship with him, calling Soleimani a “living martyr” and helping him financially.” 

Did Trump take that into consideration when making his bet that Iran would fold? If Trump is wrong and Iran retaliates, what then? Katy bar the door!!!

 

 

5 thoughts on “Trump’s Big Gamble: Iran Is Too Afraid To Fight

  1. Wa-llahi! Six months from now we won’t recognize this country. Glorious Leader has pushed all our chips into the kitty. What if he doesn’t even have a pair? I mean cards.

  2. See my thread

    Starting a War to avoid impeachment and get re-elected is the path I have chosen “President Trump”

    https://www.ldsfreedomforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=53507

    Also see

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/03/the-dangers-of-privatized-intelligence/

    JANUARY 3, 2020
    The Dangers of Privatized Intelligence
    by JOYCE NELSON
    In a scathing piece about Russiagate, former CIA analyst Ray McGovern recently recalled a statement made in 1981 by then-CIA Director William Casey during the first meeting of President Ronald Reagan’s Cabinet. Casey told this gathering, “We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.” [1]

    It’s a shocking statement that might be useful to keep in mind as events further unfold over the next few months. Casey, of course, would have had no way of knowing in 1981 just how far his “disinformation program” would extend.

    The Rise of Russiagate

    Ray McGovern once again effectively demolishes (as he has several times over the past three years) the flims

    don’t forget income taxes due April 15 2020

    https://cdn.muckrock.com/foia_files/2020/01/02/Edb431f9383161d362d4172f61f7ad4e80a5ca94f_Q41129_R353347_D2243297.pdf

  3. Happy New Year to all. A very good post. The Bolton-Pompeo types were hyping Iran’s killing Americans during the Iraq war. An American pol said Iran was responsible for the deaths of one thousand Americans during that conflict. An Israeli spokesman said they had killed hundreds of Americans. Mike Morrell the former CIA chief said Iran caused the deaths of dozens of Americans. The Neo Cons can’t even get their lies straight. Over 4000 U S troops lost their lives during that conflict. About 90% were in the Sunni triangle. A small percentage were in the Shia area. Iran supplied the weapons for Shia to fight the U S. Russia supplied the weapons in Viet Nam to the North Vietnamese. So should we kill a Russian general and start a nuclear war for their conduct 50 years ago? Was an attack on Americans imminent? So said the intel folks who are often mistaken. 2. The worst part of this act is that it leaves the time, place and extent of retaliation totally up to Iran. It strengthens the Ayatollahs. A war with Iran will certainly cost Trump re election. He has the two important issues working for him. Peace and Prosperity. Is he throwing one away? If the U S is in a war with Iran this summer he is toast. The impeachment is a farce and the Senate will kill it. This issue has consequences. There is no public support for a war with Iran save the Saudi and Israeli lobbies and their friends.

  4. All good fuel for thought.
    Time will tell whether Trump’s tactical attacks were prudent or ill advised.
    1. My hope is that the Iraq Parliament votes to kick out the U.S., and we withdraw all our forces not only from Iraq, but also from Afghanistan and Syria. Will we be abandoning Kurd and other allies? Yes, although we could still use political (U.N.), economic (financial aid) leverage. Certainly the Kurds don’t expect the U.S. Army to be their protectors in perpetuity. The alternatives to American withdrawal are perpetual war, perpetual armed conflict, perpetual occupation, perpetual stalemate. End Pax Americana, stop listening to the Neocons, like Pompeo and Bolton.
    2. Will Iran retaliate? Yes. To what degree? Who knows? How will we counter-retaliate? Tit for tat for another 18 years?
    3. Can peace be achieved in the Middle East without U.S. armed intervention? Yes. Why not? Let’s try it. Let the Sunnis and Shiites, the Kurds, Syrians, Turks, Iraqis and Afghans settle their own problems.

  5. This is a guy who never reads reports, ignores all professional analysis, and does not bother with consequences. How can you blame him when he knows none of those consequences or prices paid by him or his family?

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