Up To Date Report on Covid-19 Numbers: May 2, 2020

Last week I mentioned how Mike Pence the guy in charge of Trump’s response to the Covid-19 said,  “I think by Memorial Day Weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us.” Memorial Day being on the 25th it gives us 3 weeks and 2 days to shape up our act. Right now if Bing Crosby were alive he’d be singing: “Things Aren’t Going My Way.”

Lots of happy talk out there about pushing for a vaccine – let’s hope it happens but the usual time to develop one is around five years so I’d withhold my optimism a bit. Come to think of it they are still trying to come up with a vaccine for HIV and that’s been a couple of decades.

As I try to do on Saturday I take a look at what is happening to get a realistic look at the numbers. I turn to the statistics over the last week to get an idea on how we are doing. I’m looking at the dates from April 25 to May 1.

There are now 1,103,115 positive cases in the UNITED STATES or 212,591 new cases over a week We’ve had an average of 30,370 new positive cases a day compared with  27,260 such cases a week earlier. That is definitely not a good sign especially since over half the states are now lifting restrictions on stay at home orders.

There were 13,787 deaths compared to 14,284 the week earlier.  Death cases average 1,970 compared to 2,041 a week earlier. Unlike a week ago when we saw a substantial drop (from 2,585) this is modest. These are mostly stay at home statistics. Now that things are opening up we’ll see what happens.

Sadly now a lot of thugs carrying guns are blocking state houses threatening people and refusing to follow government orders. Trump incredibly calls them “very good people”.  He suggests the governor cave in to their intimidation and negotiate at the point of a gun. That sounds more like advice Don Corleone would offer.

There are 207,427 positive cases in ITALY compared to 192,992 cases a week ago. An average of 2,062 positive cases a day compared to 2,937 last week (3,551 two weeks ago) There are 28,236 deaths compared to 25,969 deaths a week ago. Death cases average 324 a day compared with 461 a week ago and 557 two weeks ago. Unlike the United States Italy is clearly on a downward trend. I believe it is slowly opening up. We can watch to see how it goes.

The latest SPAIN statistics are confusing. It lists 213,435 case which is less than the 219,764 positive cases last week and 239,639 it reported the day before.  Leaving out that day Spain’s average seems to be 3,313 new positive cases a day compared with 4,132 of last week. There are 24,543 deaths leaving out the last date. Death cases average 336 compared with 360. The cases dropped well but the deaths remain relatively unchanged. We’ll have to wait to get a better feel on Spain.

There are 178,685 cases in the UK 144,635 positive cases.  An average of 4,864 new positive cases a day compared with last week’s 4,191. There are  27,583 deaths compared to 19,566 deaths last week. Death cases averaged 1,176 compared with 708. All I can say is that things aren’t well with the UK folk.

Italy and Spain are on a downturn in the number of new cases and deaths. They plan on opening up. The US isn’t but it’s planning to open up. UK has started to go up, no plans set to open up.

GERMANY opened up when it had 159,700 cases.  In four days it has gone to 164,000.  That also will be watched.

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As for the states some are very hot, some are luke warm and a few are just right down close to zero deaths. Much of this is due to the stay at home orders. One problem with the states is that we see in Florida they are massaging the numbers. The state doesn’t count those Snow Birds who die there in its statistics; it has also ordered the country medical examiners to no longer report deaths and in some cases not to include the manner of death. That’s one way to keep up the happy talk.

I’m following the death rates in 39 states. We’ll see how they move up and down in the following four categories. The ideal is if they all reach level four we will be in pretty good shape although level 3 wouldn’t be bad if all were in the lower half.

Figures in parenthesis are what were reported last week.

  1. OVER 50 – 11 States – Same as Last Week)

New York 349 (477);   New Jersey 274 (253);   Massachusetts 155  (159);   Connecticut 82 (104);   Illinois 94 (94); California  73 (82) ;    Michigan 111 (122) ;   Pennsylvania 123 (105);  Maryland 52 (53);  Colorado 57 (25) Indiana 62 (22).

This is a mixed bag. It certainly though does not present a picture of a solid declining rate in these states outside New York. The states of  New Jersey, Indiana, Colorado, Pennsylvania went up.

  1. 25 UP TO 49  – 5 States (down from 6 states)

Florida 40 (51);  Georgia 37 (34); Texas 32 (23); Ohio, 44 (38);  Louisiana 47 (47)

Three of the five states saw an increase.

  1. 10 TO 25  9 States (up from 7 States)

Missouri 10 (13);   North Carolina 18 (16);   Mississippi 10 (10),   Rhode Island 11 (12);   Washington 14 (18); Alabama 12 (9);   Wisconsin 10 (8);   South Carolina 15 (6);   Virginia 24 (25)

Not significant changes here other than South Carolina with a big jump.

  1. 1 TO 9 14 states (down from 15 states)

New Hampshire 3 (2); Arkansas 4 (1);  Nebraska 3 (3);     West Virginia 2 (2);    Oklahoma 6 (7);   Nevada 7 (8);     New Mexico 6 (4);   Tennessee  5 (4);   Vermont 1 (1);   Kentucky 7 (8);    North Dakota 2 (1);  South Dakota 2 (1). Iowa 9 (11), Arizona 9 (14).

As I noted last week: “Overall there is a steadiness about the states. They don’t seem to be showing that much movement up or down. We’ll keep watching.”

Especially now with things going along as if there is no longer any, as someone has said, “collective punishment.” It seems to me those seeking to get out from he stay at home order expect the cure to Covid-19 is the Second Amendment.

 

19 thoughts on “Up To Date Report on Covid-19 Numbers: May 2, 2020

  1. HERE’S THE TABLE I PROMISED TO POST A WHILE BACK. This was prepared in mid-March, as I recall, or perhaps a bit later or earlier.
    NOTE: THIS WAS PUBLISHED BY SOME EXPERT PREDICTING ABOUT 500,000 COVID-19 DEATHS OVERALL IN THE U.S. So, just divide his Coro estimate by 5 (we’re now predicting 100,000 deaths) and you’ll bet the relationships. In other words, age 10-19 would be not 800 deaths but 160 deaths in that age group due to COVID-19. So, too age 20-29 would be not 2,300, but 460, and so on.
    “Here is where coronavirus deaths would rank among different age groups, assuming an overall infection rate of 30% and fatality rate of 0.5% over the next year:
    Age 10 to 19
    1 Guns 3,148
    2 Car crashes 2,870
    3 Suicide 1,532
    4 Cancer 1,071
    5 Coronavirus (estimate) 800
    Age 20 to 29
    1 Drug overdoses 11,477
    2 Guns 8,929
    3 Car crashes 8,284
    4 Suicide 3,542
    5 Coronavirus (estimate) 2,300
    Age 30 to 39
    1 Drug overdoses 17,303
    2 Guns 6,806
    3 Cancer 6,540
    4 Car crashes 6,365
    7 Coronavirus (estimate) 2,800
    Age 40 to 49
    1 Cancer 19,395
    2 Heart disease 18,276
    3 Drug overdoses 14,303
    4 Coronavirus (estimate) 7,100
    5 Liver disease and cirrhosis 5,916
    Age 50 to 59
    1 Cancer 70,996
    2 Heart disease 54,498
    3 Coronavirus (estimate) 32,000
    4 Drug overdoses 14,688
    5 Liver disease and cirrhosis 14,642
    Age 60 to 69
    1 Cancer 147,935
    2 Heart disease 102,449
    3 Coronavirus (estimate) 97,000
    4 Emphysema and COPD 27,768
    5 Diabetes 19,122
    Age 70 to 79
    1 Cancer 172,805
    2 Coronavirus (estimate) 147,000
    3 Heart disease 135,243
    4 Emphysema and COPD 48,288
    5 Alzheimer’s, dementia and brain degeneration 37,218
    Age 80+
    1 Heart disease 335,740
    2 Alzheimer’s, dementia and brain degeneration 220,976
    3 Coronavirus (estimate) 192,000
    4 Cancer 177,706
    5 Stroke 86,390

    Total =480,000/5= 96,000
    You see only a small fraction of deaths are in people under 30 . . .Why not reopen the schools and sports stadiums and just ban folks over 60?

    1. Over 60 represents 90% of deaths; under 30 years old, it’s estimated you’ll lose only 600 people . . .almost all, I’m sure, are with severe co-morbidities . . . .For drug abuse (O.D.s) alone you;ll lose almost 12,000; add in the other causes, and you expect over 40,000 deaths . . . We don’t shut down the whole society over car accidents or drug abuse, NOR SHOULD WE CONTINUE TO SHUT DOWN AMERICA

      Every life matters . . . .now think of all the lives, businesses, marriages destroyed by this lockdown, and the very likely increase rates of alcoholism, drug addiction, mental health problems, etc joblessness and isolation impair the immune system and cause/contribute to lethal diseases, too.

  2. What about those left wing abortion nuts who voted for Hillary and the left wing tax increase nuts? Australia suffered less because they stopped immigration. Biden wants open borders and free health care to illegals.

    1. NC:

      Two wrongs don’t make a right.
      I thought Trump also stopped the immigration. Are you saying he didn’t? Is it that they are wiser in Australia than here?
      Biden doesn’t want babies and children separated from their parents. Trump doesn’t particularly care one way or the other.
      Biden doesn’t want open borders – no one wants open borders – that’s like saying in Massachusetts we are suffering collective punishment because we are asked to stay in our homes, keep social distancing and wear masks. Did you ever say the draft was collective punishment because people were forced to go into the service?
      Do you want people who come to this country legally to receive free health care? Do you think only people who afford it can receive health care and the others who don’t have the ability to pay for it have to go without?
      Do you think we should give free education to the immigrants who come to the country? What about the children of illegal immigrants, do you think they should not be given free education.
      The “original settlers” though that the Irish should not have free education. In New York they fiercely objected to the Jews and Italians coming here and seeking free education because of the costs associated with it. I suppose the idea that kids of illegals or even other immigrants should not be adding to the costs of education.
      Wouldn’t it have been nice to have the tax cuts given to the wealthy and corporations back in the coffers now? Are you against a progressive tax? Do you want everyone to be taxed at the same rate?

      1. Joe Biden favors the killing of unborn human beings/ president Trump was the first president in history to speak at the annual pro-life rally held to protest the corrupt Roe v. Wade decision.
        Every time you arrest a parent, you separate them from their children.
        Obama/Biden Administration built the cages on the border.
        No one is turned away from a hospital ER or OUtpatient Clinic because of an inability to pay. Most hospitals treat about 5-10% of total patients who have no insurance or cannot afford to pay.
        Benefits of citizenship go to those who are citizens. Legal Immigrants get most benefits, except voting.
        Yes, the children of illegal immigrants born in America are citizens; but no parents who illegally bring their children here are not entitled to benefits.
        Do most states allow children brought here illegally the benefit of public education and health care. The answer is yes, as far as I know.

        Joe Biden said he would stop deporting all illegals who are here, except those who commit felonies while here. He seemed to be saying if you commit a felony in Belarus, and get here illegally, he would not deport you. Even so, Joe is for giving all benefits to illegal immigrants, an inducement for more and more illegals to flock to our shores.

        Prior generations of Irish, Italian, Jews, came here, mostly legally . . .there were not waves upon waves of illegal immigrants flocking to our shores in the twentieth century, and even in the nineteenth, when our immigration laws were lax, and we had big wide open country with less than one hundred million people.

        It is the hardworking American Taxpayer, not the government employee, who pays for all the benefits given to immigrants, legal or illegal.

  3. I am right wing, and I reject the appellation “nut-job”, and prefer the apt descriptive “freedom loving” like the right-wingers at Concord & Lexington and Bunker Hill.

    And, yes, how do you know they’r right wing? Maybe they’re libertarians or liberals, in part, at least.

    1. 11 countries (including a few independent states) have more deaths per capita than the U.S., and three others, Switzerland, Montserrat, and Luxembourg have about the same.
      All those countries with the highest deaths per million are in Western Europe except the United States which has the highest influx of European tourists and returning citizens (students, business people, etc.) than any other country.

      2. 12 days ago: “Apr 23, 2020 · Pence Predicts That ‘By Memorial Day Weekend We Will Largely Have This Coronavirus Epidemic Behind Us’ ”

      3. The Epicenter Theory holds true: Wuhan, Lombardy, NYC

    2. I share this interesting May 1, 2020 post:
      “Mind-blowing stat:
      – The 44 counties within 100 miles of NYC have half of all US #COVID19 deaths (28K)
      – That’s 67 deaths per 100K population
      – Other similar-sized counties had ~12 deaths per 100K
      – If the NYC 44 had that same ratio… total US deaths would have just hit ~20K.”

      At 20,000 deaths, per 320 million people, our death rate would be lower than Germany and Austria and just above Slovenia (remember Slavic Countries in both Western and Eastern Europe have very low rates.)

      So, again NYC was epicenter in USA, as was Lombardy in Western Europe, and Wuhan China the epicenter of the World.

      1. William:

        Just think if Trump took the January 23 information he received seriously and acted upon it and banned international flights form going into New York City which is the major hub for them how many fewer deaths we would have had in the country. He’s now saying we are going to have up toe 100,000 deaths because he was too busy preparing for his golf trips and hate rallies which attract those “very good people” who we saw invade the Michigan legislative building with AR15s to care about doing his job.

        But one thing is good, it’s all going to be over and behind us in three weeks by Memorial Day, which means with our 67,600 deaths that we now have it is likely if we are to reach 100,000 we’re going to have to have over 10,000 people die a week which is close to our present rate and then according to Pence with the advent of summer the virus will flee.

        1. Trump did act decisively and before any other country. Just think, if FDR had acted earlier, we might have prevented Pearl Harbor.
          Trump acted before any other leader in Western Europe, or even in Eastern Europe.
          HIs actions saved a million or more lives. If Italy has six times our death rate per capita, and we end up with 100,000 deaths, we would have ended up with at least 600,000 deaths if Trump had not acted decisively.

          You mock Vice President Pence’s Prediction of April 23, that this would mostly behind us by May 25th. Forty-one states are now re-opening. Let’s see where we are on Memorial Day Weekend.

          Of course, all the Monday Morning Quarterbacks have predicted all along exactly how this would peter out . . . .I forget, what was your last prediction of when this would be behind us, for the most part?

          1. The death rate is artificially inflated by adding in “probable deaths” due to Covid2, and adding in almost all folks who died WITH covid2, but not because of covid2, and adding in all folks who died with symptoms that looked like covid2 . . .in fact if you die with a high temperature and a dry cough, they add you in as a covid2 death. Covid2 is another shorthand for Covid-19.

            The first prediction I posted of expected deaths was 81,000 done by an expert epidemiologist out of the State of Washington . . .that was back about March 20th as I recall . . . .

            Remember Governor Baker’s (Charlie Parker as JOe Biden calls him) predicted at one of his first press conferences that his experts told him the Massachusetts total deaths would be between 900 and 3,400 deaths.

            These things are explainable by the overcounting today, and by many other factors, including the high mortality rates in nursing home, elderly housing centers, hospice care facilities for the elderly, terminally ill hospital patients and homecare patients (those with comorbidities have a higher incidence of death, especially ) and many other factors.

            Anyway, however it all winds up, there’s little we can do except hope and pray and be of good cheer.

  4. Correct me if i’m wrong, but I think state’s count deaths when a person dies in the state. You’ll have to ask a coroner or biostatitician, I guess. We do remember those who died in service to their country in the Army-Air Corps, let’s say, during WWII, but if they died in Germany or at Midway or in training at airbase in Texas, we list the time and place of death then and there.

    Now, tourists who return from China with coronavirus, we list as dying in New York or Washington State. Are you suggesting we list their deaths as occurring in Florida, if their plane landed down at Miami? If a snowbird dies in Chicago having returned from Miami, how do we know he contracted the virus in Miami, Chicago or on the plane coming home?

    Of course, we could do a long-term retrospective, multi-factorial analyses to try to splice out all these loose threads. But I would not, unless I were a bit paranoid, ascribe the failure to count a snowbird’s death in Chicago on the books of Florida. Maybe the Chicago guy infected the guys and gals on Miami Beach.

    Anyway, 41 States have begun to reopen, as have much of the World’s countries including many countries in Western Europe.

    I note that the death rate in Sweden is between three times and five times neighboring Norway and Denmark. It used to be over six-times. We’ll see in the months and year ahead, how that pans out. Maybe Sweden had the right idea: no shutdowns, rely on common sense, build herd immunity. We’ll see. time will tell.

    1. William:

      Cut to the chase – Florida does not count the people who die in Florida from coronavirus as having died in Florida from coronavirus if they were Snow Birds – that is people who went to Florida over the winter to get away from the cold.

      Repeat: Florida in its reports of coronavirus deaths does not count those people when they die in that state in its reports.

      1. Who does count them, then? You have police reports and coroners reports and hospital reports in Florida. They all record who dies: police find body at home, coroner prepares for burial, autopsies are done in hospitals, hospitals record their deaths. Of course they are recorded.
        Now if you are saying that Florida only reports the deaths of citizens of Florida who died from the Virus, then so what. How does that differ from every other state? Does every state reporting Covid double count deaths of citizens within their state and deaths of visitors to the state.
        YOU see, Matt, there has to be one system of reporting. If not, those who keep the data register that STATES x, y and z report only citizens deaths, and States A, B and C, report both citizens and tourists/visitors deaths as deaths within the state.

        What you are implying is someone out there is cooking the books, and all the other states are acting legitimately, but Florida and maybe all Republican States are acting illegitimately.

        Please immediately report those states acting illegally, cooking the books, to the National Institutes of Health, so they can straighten out the statistics for us. We don’t want to undercount, overcount, or double count, do we?

        You know whose reports of state and country death rates I and many others rely on? John Hopkins Medical/Public Health is one source. The European Union’s Health Commission (I think that’s what is called) is the second source.

        Please contact them immediately and let them know you’ve read somewhere that Florida and perhaps other states are cooking the books.

        Thank you for your kind consideration of these ideas.

  5. I would liked to have seen the head of that hospital hand Spence a mask and tell him “No mask, no tour”.

  6. wa-llahi. I sure get a kick out of watching those right-wing gun nuts march around. They think they’re dangerous because they carry those weapons. Not, so, the cops, and/or, any infantry squad, would mow them down. Combat is not an individual competitor activity, If you want to survive, you have to work as a team. Coordinating fires with movement is essential. The goofs at the “I want to die demonstrations” are idiots.

    1. Khalid:

      You gotta admit those right wing-gun nuts are just waiting for Covid-19 to show its ugly head. Then using their Second Amendment right to bear arms they can vaccinate it with their AR-15s.

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