Last week I mentioned how Mike Pence the guy in charge of Trump’s response to the Covid-19 said, “I think by Memorial Day Weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us.” Memorial Day being on the 25th it gives us 3 weeks and 2 days to shape up our act. Right now if Bing Crosby were alive he’d be singing: “Things Aren’t Going My Way.”
Lots of happy talk out there about pushing for a vaccine – let’s hope it happens but the usual time to develop one is around five years so I’d withhold my optimism a bit. Come to think of it they are still trying to come up with a vaccine for HIV and that’s been a couple of decades.
As I try to do on Saturday I take a look at what is happening to get a realistic look at the numbers. I turn to the statistics over the last week to get an idea on how we are doing. I’m looking at the dates from April 25 to May 1.
There are now 1,103,115 positive cases in the UNITED STATES or 212,591 new cases over a week . We’ve had an average of 30,370 new positive cases a day compared with 27,260 such cases a week earlier. That is definitely not a good sign especially since over half the states are now lifting restrictions on stay at home orders.
There were 13,787 deaths compared to 14,284 the week earlier. Death cases average 1,970 compared to 2,041 a week earlier. Unlike a week ago when we saw a substantial drop (from 2,585) this is modest. These are mostly stay at home statistics. Now that things are opening up we’ll see what happens.
Sadly now a lot of thugs carrying guns are blocking state houses threatening people and refusing to follow government orders. Trump incredibly calls them “very good people”. He suggests the governor cave in to their intimidation and negotiate at the point of a gun. That sounds more like advice Don Corleone would offer.
There are 207,427 positive cases in ITALY compared to 192,992 cases a week ago. An average of 2,062 positive cases a day compared to 2,937 last week (3,551 two weeks ago) There are 28,236 deaths compared to 25,969 deaths a week ago. Death cases average 324 a day compared with 461 a week ago and 557 two weeks ago. Unlike the United States Italy is clearly on a downward trend. I believe it is slowly opening up. We can watch to see how it goes.
The latest SPAIN statistics are confusing. It lists 213,435 case which is less than the 219,764 positive cases last week and 239,639 it reported the day before. Leaving out that day Spain’s average seems to be 3,313 new positive cases a day compared with 4,132 of last week. There are 24,543 deaths leaving out the last date. Death cases average 336 compared with 360. The cases dropped well but the deaths remain relatively unchanged. We’ll have to wait to get a better feel on Spain.
There are 178,685 cases in the UK 144,635 positive cases. An average of 4,864 new positive cases a day compared with last week’s 4,191. There are 27,583 deaths compared to 19,566 deaths last week. Death cases averaged 1,176 compared with 708. All I can say is that things aren’t well with the UK folk.
Italy and Spain are on a downturn in the number of new cases and deaths. They plan on opening up. The US isn’t but it’s planning to open up. UK has started to go up, no plans set to open up.
GERMANY opened up when it had 159,700 cases. In four days it has gone to 164,000. That also will be watched.
As for the states some are very hot, some are luke warm and a few are just right down close to zero deaths. Much of this is due to the stay at home orders. One problem with the states is that we see in Florida they are massaging the numbers. The state doesn’t count those Snow Birds who die there in its statistics; it has also ordered the country medical examiners to no longer report deaths and in some cases not to include the manner of death. That’s one way to keep up the happy talk.
I’m following the death rates in 39 states. We’ll see how they move up and down in the following four categories. The ideal is if they all reach level four we will be in pretty good shape although level 3 wouldn’t be bad if all were in the lower half.
Figures in parenthesis are what were reported last week.
- OVER 50 – 11 States – Same as Last Week)
New York 349 (477); New Jersey 274 (253); Massachusetts 155 (159); Connecticut 82 (104); Illinois 94 (94); California 73 (82) ; Michigan 111 (122) ; Pennsylvania 123 (105); Maryland 52 (53); Colorado 57 (25) Indiana 62 (22).
This is a mixed bag. It certainly though does not present a picture of a solid declining rate in these states outside New York. The states of New Jersey, Indiana, Colorado, Pennsylvania went up.
- 25 UP TO 49 – 5 States (down from 6 states)
Florida 40 (51); Georgia 37 (34); Texas 32 (23); Ohio, 44 (38); Louisiana 47 (47)
Three of the five states saw an increase.
- 10 TO 25 9 States (up from 7 States)
Missouri 10 (13); North Carolina 18 (16); Mississippi 10 (10), Rhode Island 11 (12); Washington 14 (18); Alabama 12 (9); Wisconsin 10 (8); South Carolina 15 (6); Virginia 24 (25)
Not significant changes here other than South Carolina with a big jump.
- 1 TO 9 14 states (down from 15 states)
New Hampshire 3 (2); Arkansas 4 (1); Nebraska 3 (3); West Virginia 2 (2); Oklahoma 6 (7); Nevada 7 (8); New Mexico 6 (4); Tennessee 5 (4); Vermont 1 (1); Kentucky 7 (8); North Dakota 2 (1); South Dakota 2 (1). Iowa 9 (11), Arizona 9 (14).
As I noted last week: “Overall there is a steadiness about the states. They don’t seem to be showing that much movement up or down. We’ll keep watching.”
Especially now with things going along as if there is no longer any, as someone has said, “collective punishment.” It seems to me those seeking to get out from he stay at home order expect the cure to Covid-19 is the Second Amendment.