Up To Date Report on Numbers: April 18, 2020

New cases in the United States seems to be steady over the last five days ranging from 30,442 to 32,491, the latter amount being how many were recorded in the last 24 hours.

Italy has about 3,500 new cases on average; Spain over the last six days jumps from 8,118, to 2442, to the most recent figure of 887 which leaves one scratching his head; and the UK has been between 4,600 and 5,500.

You could say we are at a plateau. The reason is I assume that we are keeping the population separated with stay at home orders yet we still see a significant number of new cases.

The death rate tells a different picture: U.S. with about 1,900 under 2,000 for the first time in a week; Italy under 500 for the first time in a week; Spain down to 41 deaths from the prior three days being over 600; and the UK around 888 which is the latest figure. It has been suggested by some that the UK will soon have the highest rates in Europe. That of course is the result of starting off with the idea of using the herding model which means doing nothing.

Germany has about 143 thousand cases and 4459 deaths or a death to positive case ratio of 3.12% while the US ratio is 5.28%. Germany had a very effective test, trace and isolate program which accounts for the difference. Spain, Italy and UK have between 10% and 14% death rates.

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As for the states some are very very hot, some are luke warm and a few are just right down close to zero deaths. Much of this is due to the stay at home orders. I’m following 39 states with the addition of DC which I just started. We’ll see how they move up and down in the following five categories. The ideal is if they all reach level four we will be in pretty good shape although level 3 wouldn’t be bad if all were in the lower half.

States: New Deaths

  1. OVER 50 (9 states)

NY 540; NJ 230; MA 156; Illinois 125; Cal 87; Florida 85; Michigan 81; PA 80; LA 54

  1. 25 UP TO 49 (7 states)

Indiana, Georgia, Texas, Washington, Ohio, Maryland, Virginia

  1. 10 TO 25 (6 States)

Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Mississippi, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Iowa

  1. 1 TO 9 (11 states)

Alabama, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Tennessee, Vermont, Kentucky

  1. 0 or Not Recorded: (4)

Connecticut, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota

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