Up To Date Report on Numbers: April 25, 2020

Last night listening to the news I heard a voice recording of the VP Pence who said “If you look at the trends today, I think by Memorial Day Weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us.” Now that’s a guy who should know being in such a lofty position.  

A little later a doctor in charge of investigating these type of viruses said the normal course of these pandemics is that we will have between 800,000 and 1,6 million deaths before it is largely behind us.” So who do you listen to? A  department store mannequin; or someone in the business? By the way where are those “what me worry” or “fake news” people who were comparing this to automobile deaths or flu deaths?

Since that is the question, I turn to the statistics over the last week to get an idea on how we are doing. I’m looking at the dates from 4/18 to 4/24.

There are 890,524 positive cases in the United States. We have had an average of 27,260 new positive cases a day. That’s down from the prior seven-day period (4/11-4/17) of 29,024.  That is an indication of a plateau with a slight decline.hardly a significant drop. There are 51,017 deaths. Death cases average 2,041 compared with 2,585 a fairly good drop. These are all stay at home statistics. Now that things are opening up we’ll see what happens.

By the way some say the upcoming heat is going to affect the number and transmission of cases. A person from Singapore who says it is always hot and sunny there has suggested it has not helped. Something to keep in mind.

There are 192,992 positive cases in Italy.  An average of 2,937 new positive cases a day compared with last week’s 3,551. There are 25,969 deaths. Death cases average 461 compared with 557 a fairly good drop.

There are 219,764 positive cases in Spain.  An average of 4,132 new positive cases a day compared with last week’s 4,652. There are 22,524 deaths. Death cases average 360 compared with 550 a substantial drop.

There are 144,635 positive cases in the UK.  An average of 4,191 new positive cases a day compared with last week’s 5,432. There are 19,566 deaths. Death cases average 708 compared with 805. A drop.

It does appear that in these three countries we are on a downturn in the number of new cases and deaths. Some have shown significant drops. This is all good news if it keeps up. Time will tell.

Germany has about 154 thousand cases and 5723 deaths or a deaths. As noted before Germany had a very effective test, trace and isolate program which accounts for the difference compared to Spain, Italy and UK.

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As for the states some are very hot, some are luke warm and a few are just right down close to zero deaths. Much of this is due to the stay at home orders.

Now that some are moving away from these orders it’ll be a couple of weeks I assume to see if things change. I’m following the death rates in 39 states. We’ll see how they move up and down in the following five categories. The ideal is if they all reach level four we will be in pretty good shape although level 3 wouldn’t be bad if all were in the lower half.

States: New Deaths – An average over 7 prior days. Figures in parenthesis are what were reported last week which I see was only in the states over 50 deaths. This week I’ll report the average in all the states.

  1. OVER 50 – 11 States (9 states)

NY 477 (540);   NJ 253 (230);   MA 159 (156);   Connecticut 104,    Illinois 94 (125); Cal 82 (87);    Florida 51 (85);   Michigan 122 (81) ;   PA 105 (80); LA 55 (54), Maryland 53. – Connecticut not counted last week, Maryland moved up from #2 category.

  1. 25 UP TO 49  6 States (7 states)

Colorado 25,  Georgia 34,  Texas 23,   Washington 18,   Ohio, 38,   Virginia 25. Maryland went to # 1, Colorado came up from # 3, Indiana moved down to #3.

  1. 10 TO 25  7 States (7 States)

Indiana 22,   Missouri 13,   North Carolina 16,   Mississippi 10,   Rhode Island 12,    Iowa 11,    Arizona 14.  Colorado moved up to #2; South Carolina moved down to #4.

  1. 1 TO 9 (11 states)

New Hampshire 2;    Alabama 9;      Arkansas 1;     Wisconsin 8;   Nebraska 3;     West Virginia 2;    Oklahoma 7;   Nevada 8;     New Mexico 4;   Tennessee 4;   Vermont 1;   Kentucky 8;   South Carolina 6;   North Dakota 1;  South Dakota 1.

  1. 0 or Not Recorded: 0 (4)   I don’t think I need this since everyone has now reported at least one death and where the latest figures are not in then I’ll just average out the six prior days.

Overall there is a steadiness about the states. They don’t seem to be showing that much movement up or down. We’ll keep watching.

13 thoughts on “Up To Date Report on Numbers: April 25, 2020

  1. It seems that NY and NJ have more than half the fatalities from covid 19. The rest of the U S is doing O.K. Are urban planners going to have to rethink city plans. Are those living in congested, densely populated areas at greater risk for epidemics? Will people have to dessert large cities as being unhealthy? Will those remaining have to wear hazmat outfits? Will public transport be abolished? Will skyscrapers be torn down? Tall rise public housing in St Louis and elsewhere have been demolished because of crime, congestion and poor up keep. Cities may have to be spread out over greater geographical areas. 2. What happens if the Feds don’t bail out the states? Tax revenues for states must be very low. Can they afford to pay their bills? Will drastic cuts ensue?

    1. Yes, and how can we have “Medicare for all” when it’s reported Medicare will go broke in 2026? How do you expand a program already on the verge of insolvency?
      NYT: “Medicare’s hospital insurance fund is expected to be depleted in 2026 — the same date that was projected a year ago. At that point, doctors, hospitals and nursing homes would not receive their full compensation from the program and patients could face more of the financial burden.”
      Someday it will dawn on liberals and socialists that there are limits to what government can do, and that increased taxes only impair an economy.

      1. wa-llahi! If God is dead, there are no limits. The future is unbound. The liquidation of hedge-fund traitors and banksters will pay for its’ dawning. Private property is an anchor that chains humans to materiality. Everyone will fell much freer after being relieved of that weight of responsibility. I’ve experienced this. It’s like feeling weightless.

      2. My SO is a doctor. She took me to a restaurant that had no prices on the menu. The idea being that, if you have enough dough to eat there, you wouldn’t care about the price. When we finished our meal, she asked me what I thought of the place. I said that come the revolution we’d arrest everybody in there, except for the staff, and, frog march them onto trucks for a trip to the potato fields.

        1. Khalid:

          That’s what we need during these days, more trips to the potato fields. I went to a similar type restaurant. When the main dish arrived I had a hard time seeing in on the plate. I suggested to the person who took me there that for the price they could have been a little more generous. He told me that the sign of a great restaurant is how little they give you. He wasn’t too happy when I suggested the next time we could go to a restaurant and really have a treat by paying top dollar and getting nothing.

    2. wa-llahi! In the coming period of war communism, our county soviet, led by the stalwarts of the WPDA: Workers Party of the Driftless Area, will erect toll booths on all paved roads that cross the county line. All power to the dialectic!

  2. Matt: good statistics. We’ll all keep an eye on things.
    The estimated deaths in the U.S. the experts tell us are now 60,000, or less.
    Annual Drug Overdoses in the U.S. 70,000
    Annual Automobile Deaths in the U.S. @35,000
    Average annual flu deaths @35,000
    The flu season of 2017-18 brought @81,000 deaths, as I recall.

    CoVid-19 may turn out to be exactly what some have predicted: No better, no worse than an average flu season. Of course, we know it comes on top of the seasonal flu,as do drug overdoses.

    We’ll see how it all pans out, retrospectively. You know, like panning for gold, all that glitters is not, and what we see on first or second blush, may not seem so beautiful or crystal clear when the blush, powder or mascara wears off.

    1. A critique: One Robin (Singapore) doesn’t make a Spring. Australia had low numbers, as did almost all of Africa and most of South America . . .so far.

      2. Lawyers live in a world of either or: guilty or not guilty; liable or not liable; majority rules for the appellant and against the appellee. In real life, oftentimes, both sides are right. Mike Pence’s view seems right.

      3. Mixing apples and oranges: If you cite world-wide cases and deaths due to CoVid 19, cite world-wide cases and deaths due to drugs and automobile accidents. It’s best to compare the more valid, more reliable U.S. data on cases and deaths. Those who compared CoVid-19 to the Flu were right. CoVid-19 may have a higher infectious rate and higher mortality rate among the elderly with co-morbidities (especially in nursing homes, hospice, hospitals and less so at-home) but its effects on folks under 60 seem as mild or milder than flu.

      4. We’ll wait and see till all the numbers come in. Later I’ll post some tables created when CoVid-19 was expected to cause about 50,000 deaths in the U.S.

        1. I do not know the purpose of these comparisons. What is the point? Do we prepare for auto accidents? If strategies work to ameliorate deaths, we should adopt them if they are reasonable. Are you advocating that we should shrug it off and apply Darwinian measures. What is the the statement you are making? What is the next sentence?

  3. Lance Tapley is a former tenant of mine who rented the
    apartment above me in the 1970’s and 1980’s.
    He is originally from Bar Harbor Maine where he
    distinguished himself as a long distance runner
    In high school winning a scholarship to Dartmouth College.

    He has gone on to create a book publishing company, a magazine
    for long distance runners in Maine and become a investigative
    journalist.
    He was recently awarded the ACLU Baldwin Award for his
    reporting on the use of torture in Maine prisons.

    He just published this article on COVID 19.

    https://freepressonline.com/Content/Home/Homepage-Rotator/Article/In-the-age-of-COVID-19-Survival-Part-1-Personal-survival/78/720/69034

    In the age of COVID-19: Survival — Part 1: Personal survival

    1. Lance Tapley’s 4-21-2020 article is spot on; a good read; good suggestions from a survivalist.
      Thanks, MSFREEH, for recommending it.

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