Why Haven’t The Epidemiologists Focused On This Which May Provide The Answer 1 of 2

So I get this idea doing my daily figures that perhaps things aren’t as they seem. I’ve had a suspicion that some states are understating the number of deaths that they have. I figured the way to determine if that is so is to figure out whether there is a percentage of deaths to positive cases and see if each state fits within a close proximity to that.

The first percentage I decided to look at was the U.S. I used the figures of 4/20 which were 783,290 cases and 41,872 deaths. I divided the number of cases into deaths and came up with 5.346%. Next I looked at the world statistics of 2,475,841 positive cases and 170,641 deaths and I get a figure of 6.877%.

I’ll stick with the U.S. figure and looked to see if there is more than a 1/2% deviance that is any cases that fall below 4.846% or above 5.846%.

So it seems to me that each state should have close to that figure. I started with New York which seems to be the most severely hit and came up with 5.790% which is in the ballpark. I then went to New Jersey which is 4.929%. Both states fit within expectations.

I then did Massachusetts which is 4.480% almost a full point less. Then Michigan which is 7.713% which is almost 2 ½% points higher than national norm.  Why would that be? Why are Michigan deaths so much higher as a percentage of positive cases than Massachusetts?

I then wanted to look at South Dakota. I understand there is a meat processing plant there that has over 900 positive cases connected to it. The total reported positive cases in the state is 1,685; the number of deaths reported is 7. The percentage is 0.415% or a full 5% lower than the national average or over 7% less than Michigan. What could account for such a difference? The better medical facilities in South Dakota; a less deadly form of coronavirus; fakery?

Then there’s Ohio. It has a prison with about 1,000 positive cases. It reports 12, 516 cases and 509 deaths. It has a 4.067% rate which is 1.3% lower than national average while Indiana to its west has 11,686 cases and 569 deaths or a percentage of 4.869% and Pennsylvania to its east has 3.623% while Kentucky and West Virginia to its south have 5.000% and 2.661% respectively.

Then I looked at Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee which showed respectively: 3.048%, 2.184%, and 2.100%

After that Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida which are 5.415%, 3.746%, 3.323, and 3.023% respectively.

Then I went to New England: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Connecticut. Their figures are respectively 4.000%, 2.945%, 4.657% and 6.717%

Next driving up from Florida, I checked Georgia (3.869%) , South Carolina (2.742%) , North Carolina (2.646%), Virginia (3.337) , Delaware (2.623) and Maryland (3.771).

I figured I’d next look at the states that say they have ten or less deaths that I have not looked at yet. Alaska 321 positive, 9 deaths = 2.804%; Hawaii 580 positive, 10 deaths = 1.724%, Montana 433/10 = 2.309,.Wyoming 313/2 = 0.639

Then I figured I’d run up the middle of the country Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa we have 2.544%, 5.336%, 5.035%, 1.900%, 2.073, 5.789, and 2.501 respectively

Next to the territories captured from Mexico and their neighbors: Arizona, New Mexico, California, Nevada, Washington, and Oregon. We have 3.693%, 2.981%, 3.900%, 4.125, 5.377, and, 3.834%

I’ll  just add in: Utah (0.871), Colorado (4.337%), and Idaho(2.91). That leaves me three doggies that have to be rounded up: they are: Rhode Island which I left out of New England -with 5,090 positive cases and 155 deaths which is 3.045; Wisconsin with 4.499 positive case and 230 deaths or 5.112%., and finally Illinois: 31,508 positive to 1349 deaths or 4.281%.

5 thoughts on “Why Haven’t The Epidemiologists Focused On This Which May Provide The Answer 1 of 2

  1. wa-llahi! I been watching President Cuomo, everyday. His figures mirror those mentioned above. Does anyone think Cuomo could replace old Joe on the Democratic ticket? Cuomo could win by acclamation at the convention. He’d beat Glorious Leader like dusty rug. Old Joe is way too tired for the fray ahead. My SO, an MD, believes old Joe has suffered a number of strokes. It shows in his speech patterns and facial expressions. Just like the bourgeois republicrats to nominate someone who can lose to Trump. The Clintonites aren’t worried about democracy, their over riding concern is their financial health.

    All praise to the proletarian heroes of health. Destruction to the health insurance companies. Let’s hear the cannon roar. All power to the dialectic!

  2. Matt: That’s very interesting data you present. Informative. Food for thought.

    The epidemiologist and biostatisticians focus on every inch of data, share it with other professionals and students in related field (virologists, infectious diseases, public health), consider feedback, plug all the data into gigantic computers and try to come up with answers. I’m quite sure they are focused on your percentages and have done quite sophisticated analyses of them. I’ve said before that when I studied this stuff I always wrestled with concepts like regression analyses and confidence intervals and degrees of freedom.

    No one is hiding data (except, perhaps, China). The American Medical/Scientific journals and on-line info sources are innumerable, and shared with all; some with a fee; some are open to scientists only. Like courtrooms, they can’t be unduly clogged with laymen.

  3. Quickly, off the top of my head, from memory: there’s multiple new studies that show the case to death rate may be as low as the seasonal flu. (o.01%) or one in ten thousand.

    Here’s the problem: Who gets tested: those with symptoms + those who came in contact with those with symptoms (tracing.)

    Who does not get tested? Those without symptoms + those who did not come in contact with someone testing positive.
    2. A cardiac surgeon, semi-retired I guess, whom I talk to from time to time said that the South Dakota’s plant was infected by one immigrant who did follow precautions. Human Error, perhaps he/she didn’t understand the posted/verbal guidelines. Subtract that one plant and South Dakota, like West Virginia, and other states have gotten off virtually Scot-free: Why? Open Space, Greater Vigilance, Greater Cooperation, Healthier Populations, all this will be spliced out.
    3. I think it was the California study (USC) reported yesterday that the symptomless are the far greater percentage of cases, hence, the overall death rate will be small. USC estimates the prevalence of those who contracted Covid-19 and were symptomless (or very mild, negligible symptoms) was 50 times greater than reported. So divide all those death rates by 50.
    4. Remember, New York is doing a ton of testing because it was hit hardest . . .in other words, it is more likely to find infected individuals.

    I would not draw any conclusions from this DATA, although it is interesting. Let’s keep an eye on the day-to-day DATA, knowing the better answers will come retrospectively. So, too, while some are claiming underreporting (folks dying at home, not counted), the fact is the overreporting of deaths far outweighs undercounting and is documented by several facts: A. Counting “probable” Covid-19 Caused deaths, and B. Counting persons with Covid-19 like Symptoms, who were not tested. A third issue, as my surgeon friend told me, is that they’re not doing autopsies. (So, for many, untested, we may never know.) A fourth factor is that people dying WITH a positive test, are included among those dying FROM covid-19. When a symptomless person dies in a head on collision, he may test positive for the VIRUS, but the VIRUS did not CAUSE his death. Again, distinguish CAUSATION from ASSOCIATION.

    5. On the National Stage, New York, New Jersey (mostly contiguous to NYC) accounts for about 55% of cases. Internationally, the USA is far behind Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, France, U.K., and behind even Sweden and close to Ireland. Now if you subtract the 55%, then U.S. is near the middle of European Countries, not including the Slavic Countries which are very low: Another Big Why?

    1. Also, the NYC, proximate NJ areas skew the results. For example, if you subtract the overall NY and NJ numbers which represent 55% of deaths, from the 40,000-plus deaths, you get about 20,000 deaths nationwide. Divide that by the number of cases. (minus NY and NJ cases, about 320,00 cases); subtract that from @800,000 cases nationally, and you get 480,000 cases for the rest of the country. So divide 20,000 by 480,000 and you get a nationwide average of 4.2 %, of CASES died. (And remember, only the symptomatic or those in contact with symptomatic (in other words, highest risk) are tested.)
      Also, testing lags behind deaths. The deaths are those infected a week or two ago; the “cases” (test positives, or “probables” or symptoms diagnosed as “consistent with”) run up until today. So, you could argue, the death rate of those tested a week ago is higher. But we don’t know when each individual was tested and confirmed a case: so we fix on these relative numbers.
      And: from TODAY’S NEWS: “Monday marked the lowest number of coronavirus-related fatalities in the U.S. in two weeks, just days after the number of deaths had spiked to 4,591 in a single day. (I think this was b/c NY started adding in “probables”, but be that as it may.” ) According to Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. lost 1,433 people to coronavirus on April 20, adding to the overall death toll of 42,364.

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