Late Night Report – April 11, 2020 No Definite Direction But Signs of Improvement.

As I predicted the United States now has more coronavirus deaths than any other country in the world. It is sort of mind boggling that we think ourselves the leading country in the world to find out we are leading in having the most number of deaths. You would think we could have done much better. There is an article in the New York Times showing how Trump again and again ignored warnings in favor of trying to keep the market up. We’ve come to the situation in the country where lives mean less than earnings. We did have that before in the early 20th century where workers could easily be replaced but mules couldn’t so greater emphasis was placed on the lives of the mules.

USA: Over the last 6 days in positive cases the daily increase has been  27,651, 33,462, 30,867, 36,277, 31,206, 29,861.  Not much of a change but certainly we’ve reached a plateau going neither down or up in and significant manner.

USA:  in deaths over the six days:  1,164, 2,061, 1,851, 1,977, 1,965, 1,826. Not much of a change but certainly we’ve reached a plateau going neither down or up in and significant manner.

Italy over the last six days in cases:  3,599, 3,039, 3,836, 4,204, 3,591, 4,694. Italy has been talking about relaxing its lock ins. These figures seem to suggest some people are jumping the gun.

Italy  in deaths over the six days:  636, 604, 542, 1,060, 120. 619. Italy has hit a pause in reducing case loads. These don’t give us a particularly hopeful look into the future

Spain over the last six days in cases:  5,029, 5,267, 6,278, 5,002, 5,051, 4,754 . These certainly show a slowing down in Spain in new cases.

Spain in deaths over the six days:  700, 704, 747, 655, 634, Again, daily deaths are decreasing. It would be good if it continues on this

UK I have three days worth of figures: new positive cases 4,398, 5,733, 8269, showing a clear upswing; and deaths 882, 981, 918. UK going in the opposite way of other European countries.

Sweden: Again only two days worth: new positive cases 722, 544, 466 ; deaths 106, 77, 17. This is looking good at this time. If Sweden is using the herd approach the figures would be much higher.

Summing Up: US and Italy on a plateau, Spain slowly improving while UK in trouble. Sweden waiting.,

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THE STATES

The overall percentage rate of increase in deaths seems down for most states. The good news is that 7 or out of the 11 states report the same or less than the day before. Only three showed an increase in daily deaths: Illinois, New Jersey and New York. It is difficult to tell how reliable these figures are. We can see Colorado did not report any new deaths; in Georgia the biggest hospital chain in the Atlanta area is not reporting any figure which apparently the governor of Georgia wants; and in Florida if someone dies in the hospital before he or she is tested then no test for coronavirus will be performed.

The last five days of deaths in these states are:

Colorado :                           10, 29, 14, 57,NR

Connecticut:                      71, 50, 53, 68, 46

Illinois:                                  73, 82, 66, 68, 81,

Indiana:                                39, 30, 42, 55, 30

Masssachusetts:              96, 70, 77, 96, 87

Michigan:                            116, 114, 117, 205, 111

New Jersey:                       229, 272, 196, 232, 251

Pennsylvania:                    78, 69, 29, 78, 78,

Texas:                                   14, 21, 24, 27, 28

Wisconsin                            15, 7, 12, 17, 9

New York                             721, 779, 799, 777, 783

 

CONCLUSION:

No definite direction one way or the other.

 

One thought on “Late Night Report – April 11, 2020 No Definite Direction But Signs of Improvement.

  1. Matt:

    (1) The New York Times is not a reputable source. Its leftist biases are glaring. I ask again: the Trump Administration was slow to act compared to what Western European Countries, compared to what Governors or Mayors, compared to what Universities, compared to what Public Health Departments? I’ve previously posted an accurate timeline.

    (2.) Here’s some real hard data: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data
    APRIL 11: CORONOVIRUS DEATHS PER MILLION POPULATION:
    (Note: Think of South Korea with 4.1 deaths per million as an approximate world mid-point.)

    A. Those with Western European genes have been hit the hardest. The U.S. is doing far better than Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, France , UK and Sweden (which have about six times, five times, five times, four times, double, double and fifty percent more deaths than the U.S.); the U.S is doing about the same or a little less well than Portugal, Ireland, Austria and Germany (which have 1/3 to ½ as many deaths); and not as well as Norway, Canada, Czech, Greece, and Croatia (which have less than ½ to 1/10 with Croatia.)

    B. Slavic countries have been hit less hard. (See Eastern Europe: Slovakia, Poland, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Belarus, Russia, etc., and heavily Slavic Western European Bosnia-Herzigovina, Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia.)

    C. North Eastern Europeans; (deaths per million): Estonians 18, Finland 8.7, Lithuanians 6, Latvians 1, are doing fairly well.

    D. Latinos have been hit less hard, too. (See Mexico, then South American and Central America countries). Asians even less hard. Africans least hard.

    THE DATA (deaths per million population):

    NORTH AMERICA/WESTERN EUROPE Spain 338, Italy 312, Belgium 261: France 202; Netherlands 147; U.K. 132; Sweden 86.4; U.S. 58; Portugal 43; Denmark 42,6;Ireland 38, Austria 35; Germany 30; Slovenia 22: Norway 17; Canada 15.1; Czech 11; Bosnia-Herzigovina 11; Serbia 10; Greece 8.6; Croatia 5.2; Mexico 1.8

    EASTERN EUROPE: Estonia 18; Finland 8.7; Lithuania 6; Poland 4.8; Bulgaria 3.6 Belarus 2.o, Ukraine 1.58; Latvia 1; Russia, 0.46; Slovakia o.4 . Slovaks are mostly Slavs. (Whereas Czechs are mixed Slavs and Germanic. ) Slovenia and Croatia have large Slavic populations, too.

    AFRICA: Algeria 5.8; Morocco 2.9; All the rest of Africa far less, averaging about 0.1 per million (from @0.05 to 1.2).

    SOUTH AMERICA & CENTRAL AMERICA: Panama 17, Ecuador 16, Peru 5, Brazil 5 (All of South and Central America less.)

    ASIA/AUSTRALIA: SOUTH KOREA 4.1; China 2.3; Malaysia 2.2; Australia 2.1, Philippines 1.8; New Zealand 0.8; Japan 0.7, India 0.17

    Some countries with the lowest deaths per million (0.5 or fewer) = Almost all of Africa except Algeria (5.8) and Morocco (2.9); India, Pakistan, Slovakia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iceland, Nicaragua, Guatemala.

    DISCUSSION: Maybe it hasn’t hit some places yet; maybe it’s passed; maybe more testing needs to be done. Time will tell. I’d say that, like a football game, we’ve only finished the first half.

    One Washington epidemiologist says most of the U.S. has already hit its peak. We’ll see!

    Current CDC estimates for total deaths in the U.S. is 60,000, which is equal to 188 per million, which will be less than Spain, Italy, Belgium and France’s current death rate, and less than the annual death rate in the U.S. for drug overdoses (70,000 per year) which is equal to about 2 deaths per ten thousand people.

    Factor in that most deaths are among elderly with co-morbitities (78%, I’ve read) (Mass. Reports 42% of the State’s death are patients in Nursing Homes: very sad), then the chance of a healthy person, young or old, dying from Covid-19 is probably less than one in ten thousand.

    I don’t downplay 60,000 deaths. I don’t downplay anything. I know these cases and deaths could skyrocket tomorrow, or plummet. We’re dealing with an unprecedented event. Best not to throw stones at decision makers from the bleachers or the peanut galleries. Best to view with skepticism everything written in the New York Times and Washington Post, these days: they’re hell bent on twisting facts and logic to defame President Trump and put the liberal Dems, their cohorts, back in power.

    Who’s kidding whom? Who’s worse at re-writing history than the New York Times? Perhaps the greatest famine-denier in history, Walter Duranty, has his statue still sitting in the NYT lobby. They’re trying to tell us the United States’ history began in 1609, when the first slave set foot on America’s soil, not in 1775, when Patriots gathered in Lexington and Concord and fired the shots heard round the world, not on July 4, 1776 when the Declaration of Independence was signed. The New York Times is a historical revisionist; its op-ed writers are full of malarkey. It cannot be trusted.

    Happy Easter!

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